NBA Matchups: Opening Night

 

Welcome back to NBA Matchups! For those who are new, I try to cover every fantasy-relevant player, but it’s tougher to do that on the big slates. There are only two games today, so I was able to go over every rotation player. I will not be doing that tomorrow or I’d have to not sleep on Monday and Tuesday night.

If you subscribed to the Draft Kit, I would suggest checking out the rotation notes, and the Preseason Winners and Losers article should be helpful (and probably more useful if you’re tight on time).

 

LAL @ DEN | PHX @ GSW

 

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets

Team Totals: Lakers 111.7, Nuggets 116.3

Injury Report: Jarred Vanderbilt (O, heel), Jalen Hood-Schifino (O, knee)

Lakers projected starters: D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Taurean Prince, LeBron James, Anthony Davis

Nuggets projected starters: Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

Ham quotes: Said Vanderbilt is day-to-day, said Hood-Schifino will be re-evaluated, confirmed that Taurean Prince will start and mentioned it was “circumstantial”, said they can get more out of Rui Hachimura on offense.

Malone quotes: Said that MPJ and Christian Braun will play, said Murray will run the second unit, said it’s going to be a challenge to balance competing for a title while developing the young guys.

Stats and Notes: 

*The Nuggets owned the Lakers in a sweep during the playoffs, but the Lakers added some depth while the Nuggets lost some of theirs. The Lakers had a really strong defense last year despite giving up some 3-point volume, including a 24th-ranked volume on above-the-break treys. Their one weak spot was with transition defense, allowing the fourth-highest amount of transition points. Of course, the Nuggets are just a juggernaut on offense and we saw they were able to get into their sets during the postseason. Denver’s defense was a little weak inside during the regular season. They were able to keep teams out of transition, and they were basically average from a shot location standpoint. Of course, we’ll see what the loss of Bruce Brown does.

*LeBron James has mentioned that he’s going to be managed a bit, and the Lakers did run him in shorter stints in the preseason. He also had his lowest preseason usage rate since 2018 and his 2-point rate in the preseason was the lowest of his career. Sure, it’s preseason, but there’s a lot of evidence that we could see his workload get cut down. The matchup isn’t great for him, as he’ll face Aaron Gordon, and the Nuggets were decent at protecting the paint in the postseason.

*Anthony Davis looks like he’s the man for the Lakers. On top of LeBron saying he’s the face of the franchise now, AD played in every game of the preseason and there’s been some added buzz on him to perform at a high level. Davis also turned in a 27/14/2 line against the Nuggets last year, and the Lakers will likely try to take it to Jokic.

*D’Angelo Russell got dog-walked in the Denver series last year, as his minutes dropped to 15 in the fourth game after the Nuggets just went at him. There’s a pretty decent downside on him, especially with Gabe Vincent cleared and ready to go. On the other hand, he’s looked great in the preseason with more handling than usual next to LeBron, and he had the most efficient preseason of his career. He’s probably the toughest player to gauge on the slate today, but there’s some upside on him.

*Austin Reaves was one of the most efficient players in the second half last year with his 73.4 TS% in his 22 post-break games, and he couldn’t miss in the preseason at an 83.2 TS%. Reaves’ role should be huge as he looks like he could get some of the non-LeBron/DLo lineups, and there’s been a steady increase in his usage over the last 12 months. Reaves’ matchup is not great, as he’ll likely be running into KCP again, but he’s HIM. If LeBron is closer to 30 than 35 minutes, it would really benefit Reaves.

*The Lakers are almost certainly going to start Taurean Prince as their main floor spacer. He’s going to be a corner stander, and he’ll have to share his minutes with Rui Hachimura and Gabe Vincent, who has been out since Oct. 11 due to a back injury (more on him later). The Lakers falling behind could lead to more Prince to shoot treys, but we know the Lakers also will probably want to close with Rui. Prince is a tough sell.

*We know Rui Hachimura is the guy that Ham is going to want to use on Jokic. Rui got up to 42 minutes in Game 4; he’s probably a heavy favorite to close. The Nuggets also used MPJ on him, so it’s a favorable matchup for Rui, as well. Since the Nuggets are so big, we’re probably not going to see too much small-ball stuff, which could get Rui in the upper 20s for minutes. This is probably one of the best matchups he’ll have all year.

*Gabe Vincent has been out since Oct. 11 due to a back injury, but he said he would’ve been able to play in the last preseason game if it was a regular-season game. He was cleared on Saturday and shouldn’t have any limits on him. The matchup per minute is pretty decent with the Nuggets probably using Christian Braun on him a decent bit, and Braun is coming off an injury, as well. The biggest problem for Vincent is the size of Denver, which makes it tough for Ham to use two-PG lineups. The path to Vincent getting there would be DLo having a brutal showing, so I definitely wouldn’t play DLo and Vincent together.

*The bench bigs of Christian Wood and Jaxson Hayes should both be in the rotation. Wood was used more as a PF, but he did get some C minutes in the preseason finale. It’s probably going to be tough for either guy to get to 20 minutes, and there’s some concern that the Lakers may not want to use Wood in Jokic lineups. I’d prefer Wood over Hayes, but I’d be nervous about going that route at all unless you’re playing showdown. Max Christie isn’t a lock for the rotation with Gabe back.

*Nikola Jokic smashed against the Lakers last year with a 28/15/12 line in 42 minutes per game. The Lakers will certainly be running a combination of Rui, AD, Hayes, and some others to cover him, and we know they won’t have a reliable answer for him. While Jokic did take some time this offseason to take care of his horses, it didn’t seem to affect him this month. He had his highest usage rate in the preseason since 2018, and went for a 25/14/8 line in the dress rehearsal (28 minutes). Expect the reigning Finals MVP to put up a huge stat line on ring night.

*It’s supposed to be The Year of Jamal Murray in Denver, as he’s probably a lock to make his first All-Star team. He was lights out against the Lakers last postseason with a 33/6/5 line in 41 minutes per game. The Lakers put Dennis Schroder on him a lot last year, and now they’ll probably have to turn to Reaves and Gabe Vincent as the main options to guard him — it might be Prince, as well. The Blue Arrow killed the Lakers as a PNR handler with 14.8 points per game in that department to more than double his season average of 6.9 points per game (Dame led the league at 12.7). Coach Michael Malone did confirm that Murray will run the second unit, which could really allow him to put up huge numbers in the ~13 non-Joker minutes.

*Michael Porter Jr. did get cleared over the weekend and he’ll be in the starting lineup after an ankle injury kept him out all preseason. MPJ has been pretty close to full for over a week and put in a full practice on Oct. 16, and we can expect him to get close to a full workload. MPJ’s minutes were strong in the LAL series at 35, 31, 38, and 41, and it seems like Malone wanted him out there to help on the glass. Last year, the Lakers used a mix of LeBron and Reaves on him, which should be options for Darvin Ham. He’ll probably want to start Prince on him, which is who coach Chris Finch used on MPJ in the first round of the playoffs. Without Bruce Brown to potentially steal his minutes, MPJ should have a great chance to produce against a team that did give up treys.

*Coach Michael Malone will certainly try to use Aaron Gordon for almost all of the LeBron minutes, and Gordon did get the third-most minutes on the team in the LAL series (37.0). Gordon was extremely quiet from a stats perspective in the first three games of the LAL series, but he exploded for 22 in the close-out game. The Lakers put AD on him a bunch, and they’ll probably start with LeBron on him here. Gordon is going to have to grind his way to a productive fantasy evening, but he’s not really an exciting play.

*Kentavious Caldwell-Pope gets the most favorable matchup, as the Lakers will almost certainly put DLo on him. KCP was decent in the series last year at 15/3/2, and the Lakers do give up 3-point volume. Plus, he can cook a bit in transition. There’s not much ceiling here, but there’s a path to him being in the winning lineup.

*Christian Braun is getting over a calf issue, and he’s been way behind MPJ from a health standpoint. He was only doing work on a treadmill on Oct. 16 (MPJ’s first practice day), and he could have a couple of minutes come off him to ramp up. However, guys like Peyton Watson not really earning minutes in the preseason could make Braun even more valuable right off the bat. Braun’s a tough play.

*The only other complete locks for the Nuggets are Zeke Nnaji and Reggie Jackson. The Nuggets did run a little bit of Jackson-Murray overlap, but they may not need to go there with Braun back. Nnaji should get all of the non-Joker minutes, and maybe he gets matched up with Christian Wood to make it a favorable spot. Reggie’s a tough sell, but at least he could get to 15 minutes.

*It really looks like Julian Strawther has the inside track to be the ninth man in the rotation with Justin Holiday possibly as the 10th. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Holiday get leapfrogged by Watson, or Malone could just run out nine.

 

Great matchup: Jamal Murray, Anthony Davis

Good matchup: Nikola Jokic, Rui Hachimura, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Bad matchup: D’Angelo Russell, Aaron Gordon

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Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors