Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 165-124, +$2,511 (through Week 9)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 123-77, +$3,916 (through November 9)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Marcus Mariota pass attempts
Line: 25.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 22.6 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-130)
Date: November 10, 8:15am ET
Notes: There’s rain and wind in the forecast for Thursday Night Football and the Falcons are already operating the run-heaviest offense in the league.
2. PJ Walker completions
Line: 18.5 completions
Mean Projection: 16.4 completions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: November 10, 8:34am ET
Notes: Walker only surpassed this line once in the overtime matchup against Atlanta two weeks ago. There’s also rain and wind in the forecast that could reduce passing game opportunities and effectiveness.
3. Josh Jacobs rush attempts
Line: 21.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 20.6 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 10, 6:44pm ET
Notes: Just a massive number for any running back. We’ll gladly take the under and bet on some in-game variance with game script.
4. Chase Claypool receiving yards
Line: 28.5 yards
Mean Projection: 43.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: November 10, 7:09pm ET
Notes: Claypool saw 6 targets despite playing 35% of Chicago’s snaps in his Bears debut. We’re expecting him to be a near full-go this week after another week of practice, and he gets to face the lowly Lions secondary.
5. Kareem Hunt receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.9 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+140)
Date: November 11, 2:20pm ET
Notes: Hunt has historically bested this line at a 50% clip in Cleveland, David Njoku is out, and the Browns will likely have to throw to keep up with Miami.
6. Noah Gray receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.3 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+105)
Date: November 11, 3:20pm ET
Notes: The Chiefs have plenty of WR depth to make up for the absence of Mecole Hardman, and Jody Fortson should be back.
7. Rachaad White receiving yards
Line: 19.5 yards
Mean Projection: 15.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: November 11, 4:46pm ET
Notes: RB receiving unders are some of our most profitable bets. So even if White closes the gap on Lenny Fournette further this week, we still can get there.
8. Zay Jones receptions
Line: 4.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 4.2
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-108)
Date: November 11, 9:05pm ET
Notes: Even after adjusting for the game state, this line seems to be too high with everyone for Jacksonville healthy.
9. Kenny Pickett rushing yards
Line: 22.5 yards
Mean Projection: 20.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: November 11, 9:15pm ET
Notes: The under is 3-1 with Pickett as a starter, and the Saints are not built to pull away and force him into dropbacks.
10. Dameon Pierce carries
Line: 17.5 carries
Mean Projection: 21.4 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: November 11, 9:31pm ET
Notes: The Texans have run the ball even when trailing, including 27 carries last week against Philly.
11. Derek Carr passing yards
Line: 228.5 yards
Mean Projection: 253 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: November 11, 11:23pm ET
Notes: Carr is 6-2 against this number on the season, and the Colts have faced a soft QB schedule that makes their defense look better than it probably is.
12. Sam Ehlinger completions
Line: 17.5 completions
Mean Projection: 20.0 completions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+105)
Date: November 12, 11:06am ET
Notes: QBs opposing Vegas are 7-1 against this line, and we have a conservative projection currently on Ehlinger to account for the new coaching staff.
13. Khalil Herbert rushing yards
Line: 40.5 yards
Mean Projection: 54.0 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: November 12, 11:13am ET
Notes: Herbert is 5-3 against this line with David Montgomery in the lineup. Detroit makes for a terrific matchup.
14. Aaron Rodgers passing yards
Line: 223.5 yards
Mean Projection: 248.7 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: November 12, 11:18am ET
Notes: This line was 9 yards lower than on DraftKings, and the Packers are underdogs against Dallas.
15. Aaron Jones rushing + receiving yards
Line: 69.5 yards
Mean Projection: 95.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: November 12, 12:35pm ET
Notes: Jones appears healthy after a brief injury scare last weekend and should be a major contributor in both facets as usual.
16. Melvin Gordon carries
Line: 6.5 carries
Mean Projection: 9.7 carries
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: November 12, 2:54pm ET
Notes: We are expecting Gordon and Latavius Murray to split the early down work for Denver, with Chase Edmonds coming in on third downs.
17. Austin Hooper receiving yards
Line: 22.5 yards
Mean Projection: 19.3 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-113)
Date: November 12, 4:56pm ET
Notes: Hooper is 5-1 to the under with Tannehill starting, as the Titans continue to lean on Derrick Henry.
18. Tyreek Hill receptions
Line: 7.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 8.1 receptions
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+120)
Date: November 12, 5:00pm ET
Notes: Hill is 5-4 against this line on the year, and this is a spot where we are expecting a lot of offense.
19. Tua Tagovailoa passing yards
Line: 270.5 yards
Mean Projection: 300.4 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-113)
Date: November 12, 5:15pm ET
Notes: Tua is averaging an absurd 9.2 YPA this season with tons of downfield completions to Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
20. Andy Dalton passing yards
Line: 226.5 yards
Mean Projection: 210.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 12, 6:02pm ET
Notes: We are well below this line without accounting for the possibility of poor play bringing in Jameis Winston off the bench.
21. Cade Otton receiving yards
Line: 29.5 yards
Mean Projection: 10.0 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: November 12, 8:29am ET
Notes: This line is similar to where Otton has been the past few weeks despite the return of Cameron Brate. Note that we updated the projection after posting to account for reports indicating Otton is TE1 (we now have 21.4 yards), but the larger point is that this line is set for Otton playing nearly every snap.
22. Tony Pollard receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.3 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+110)
Date: November 13, 3:27pm ET
Notes: Zeke is out, but the Cowboys have not had a high throw rate at RB all year and we do expect DAL to mix in the two backups.
23. Austin Ekeler carries
Line: 11.5 carries
Mean Projection: 13.6 carries
Book: Fanduel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: November 13, 8:09pm ET
Notes: We are baking in Isaiah Spiller and Sony Michael work. And we still have a solid Ekeler over here.
