Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected on our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 80-63, +$875
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Jimmy Garoppolo passing yards
Line: 213.5 yards
Mean Projection: 250.8
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 5, 9:28am ET
Notes: This line has been set extremely low for any QB. We believe Garoppolo’s median expectation is much higher.
2. Dameon Pierce rushing yards
Line: 62.5 yards
Mean Projection: 81.2 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 5, 8:22pm ET
Notes: Pierce saw 100% of Houston’s carries last week. We still project some work for Rex Burkhead, and have this as a clear over.
3. Lamar Jackson passing touchdowns
Line: 1.5 touchdowns
Mean Projection: 1.9 touchdowns
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+110)
Date: October 6, 10:31am ET
Notes: Lamar has done this three times already this season. Seems like a clear case of the volume not matching up with the efficiency in the market.
4. Cooper Rush passing yards
Line: 239.5 yards
Mean Projection: 235.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 6, 10:40am ET
Notes: Rush has not hit this number in any of his appearances. This is a great bounce-back spot for the Rams.
5. Nyheim Hines receiving yards
Line: 30.5 yards
Mean Projection: 26.7 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: October 6, 12:50pm ET
Notes: Hines is the Colts’ main back in Week 5 with Jonathan Taylor sidelined, but expecting 30+ yards for a part-time back is still a tough ask.
6. Michael Pittman receiving yards
Line: 64.5 yards
Mean Projection: 59.7 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 6, 12:54pm ET
Notes: This was a three-yard advantage over the lines on other books, and we think this game environment could be quite ugly.
7. Devonta Smith receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 4.6 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-130)
Date: October 6, 15:58pm ET
Notes: Smith projects for a low-20% target share against one of the worst secondaries in football. The Eagles had a positive PROE in Weeks 1-3 before playing in a rainy and windy affair in Week 4.
8. Kareem Hunt rush yards
Line: 48.5 yards
Mean Projection: 41.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 6, 11:19pm ET
Notes: We’re running this bet back from last week after losing by the hook. We’re expecting some slight regression from the Browns’ rushing offense as they’ve rattled off 74-65-71-71 plays through 4 weeks and have passed just 50.2% of the time.
9. Carson Wentz completions
Line: 23.5 completions
Mean Projection: 22.0 completions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-130)
Date: October 7, 8:01am ET
Notes: Great matchup against Tennessee to keep Washington’s pass rate and overall volume in check.
10. Brandon Aiyuk receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 4.6 receptions
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-119)
Date: October 7, 8:18am ET
Notes: Niners have run poorly on play volume of late, and Carolina’s secondary is banged up.
11. Jalen Hurts pass attempts
Line: 29.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 32.5 attempts
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: October 7, 8:23am ET
Notes: Seems like an overreaction to last week’s weather. Hurts went over the first three weeks of the season.
12. Nico Collins receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.2 receptions
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-105)
Date: October 7, 8:29am ET
Notes: Collins has only beaten this number once, with only one game of more than five targets.
13. Justin Herbert rushing yards
Line: 3.5 yards
Mean Projection: 8.4 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 7, 8:33am ET
Notes: Cleveland has a quality pass rush, and Herbert continues to get healthy. He is a legitimate run threat.
14. Cole Kmet receiving yards
Line: 28.5 yards
Mean Projection: 27.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 7, 8:39am ET
Notes: Kmet is averaging two targets per game, and has not had a game with more than three.
15. Mark Andrews receiving yards
Line: 65.5 yards
Mean Projection: 83.0 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 7, 8:44am ET
Notes: Our projection currently factors in Rashod Bateman, who has not practiced yet this week.
16. Noah Fant receiving yards
Line: 22.5 yards
Mean Projection: 21.2 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 7, 10:45am ET
Notes: Fant is averaging less than three targets per game, including just one in last week’s high-scoring affair.
17. Jamaal Williams rushing yards
Line: 54.5 yards
Mean Projection: 72.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 7, 12:06pm ET
Notes: D’Andre Swift is out again and the spread on this game is only three. Williams has had 19 and 20 carries each of the past two weeks.
18. Jared Goff pass attempts
Line: 35.5 pass attempts
Mean Projection: 34 pass attempts
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 7, 11:03pm ET
Notes: This matchup with New England provides a lot less shootout potential than what Detroit has faced thus far.
18. Damien Harris rush attempts
Line: 12.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 15.8 attempts
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-130)
Date: October 7, 4:40pm ET
Notes: We’re expecting a run-centric game plan here from the Patriots with Bailey Zappe starting his first career game.
19. James Conner receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.3 receptions
Book: BetRivers (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-122)
Date: October 7, 4:48pm ET
Notes: Whenever we show a solid projection under on a running back receptions line, we’re going to fire it. Eno Benjamin and Darrel Williams continue to siphon some snaps away from Conner.
20. Mark Andrews anytime TD
Line: 0.5 TDs
Mean Projection: 0.84 TDs
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+140)
Date: October 7, 7:19pm ET
Notes: The Ravens will be without Rashod Bateman Sunday night, opening up even more opportunity for Andrews in the passing game.
21. Adam Trautman receiving yards
Line: 11.5 yards
Mean Projection: 10.9 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-117)
Date: October 7, 7:34pm ET
Notes: Trautman is the TE2 in New Orleans, running a route on just 22% of dropbacks through 4 weeks.
22. Quez Watkins receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.0 receptions
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-150)
Date: October 7, 7:40pm ET
Notes: Watkins continues to see the field and is running routes on 60% of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks, but he’s barely seen any targets and is essentially used to stretch the field with his speed.
23. Devin Singletary rush attempts
Line: 10.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 13.5 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: October 7, 7:47pm ET
Notes: The Bills are 14-point home favorites against the Steelers and Singletary has played 74% and 87% of the team’s snaps over the last two weeks. We’re expecting more rush attempts from them in an expected positive game script.
24. Kareem Hunt rush attempts
Line: 10.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 9.4 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+100)
Date: October 7, 8:11pm ET
Notes: Hunt has an established role alongside Nick Chubb, but this projects as a fairly average script for the Browns and 11+ carries is no simple task.
25. Tyler Allgeier rush attempts
Line: 13.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 11.2 attempts
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-140)
Date: October 7, 8:34pm ET
Notes: Allgeier is the RB1 with Cordarrelle Patterson hurt, but Caleb Huntley figures to take a fair chunk of the rushing work.
26. Amari Cooper receptions
Line: 4.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 5.1 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+130)
Date: October 8, 12:54pm ET
Notes: Cooper has been the clear lead receiver for Cleveland, and this game has pace up and shootout potential.
27. Shi Smith receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.9 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-165)
Date: October 8, 5:29pm ET
Notes: Shenault is out for CAR but that shouldn’t impact Smith’s usage much. He has 0 games with 3 catches this season and only has 2 targets in each of the past 2 games.
28. Derrick Henry rush attempts
Line: 22.5 rush attempts
Mean Projection: 22.4 rush attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-105)
Date: October 8, 5:35pm ET
Notes: This is a huge line, even for a workhose like Henry. Any issues with game script or health would mean the under here (which has happened in all 4 contests to begin the year), and the juice on the under is minimal.
29. Tyler Allgeier receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.2 receptions
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+115)
Date: October 8, 7:32pm ET
Notes: RB receiving overs are a rare bet for us, but we’ll take the plus money on Allgeier who we believe to be the passing down back for an Atlanta team that should see a season high in pass attempts.
30. Saquon Barkley rush attempts
Line: 19.5 rush attempts
Mean Projection: 18.5 rush attempts
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 8, 7:54pm ET
Notes: Even with a Barkley centric game plan, this line is too high for an 8-point underdog.
31. Patrick Mahomes pass attempts
Line: 35.5 pass attempts
Mean Projection: 39 pass attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: October 8, 7:57pm ET
Notes: Pure projection bet on a KC team that is Top 3 in the NFL in pass rate over expectation, year after year.
32. Jerick McKinnon rushing yards
Line: 18.5 yards
Mean Projection: 16.4 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 9, 9:00am ET
Notes: McKinnon has seen his rush volume come down of late in favor of Isiah Pacheco.
33. Russell Gage receptions
Line: 4.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.9 receptions
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-111)
Date: October 9, 12:03pm ET
Notes: Gage will be on the field a lot, but he has to compete with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and both Tampa Bay RBs for receiving volume.
34. Josh Jacobs receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.8 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-145)
Date: October 10, 7:56pm ET
Notes: Jacobs has run hot on receiving recently, but as an underdog and with Hunter Renfrow back, we like the under here.
