Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 147-110, +$2,308 (through Week 8)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 82-58, +$2,033 (through November 2)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Kyler Murray passing yards
Line: 251.5 yards
Mean Projection: 273.9 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: November 3, 8:43am ET
Notes: Our projection is well ahead of this line. Kyler is coming off of a 326 yard performance.
2. Aaron Jones receiving yards
Line: 25.5 yards
Mean Projection: 37.9 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: November 3, 11:50am ET
Notes: Jones has seen increased receiving work of late, and the Lions make for a strong game environment.
3. Rex Burkhead rushing yards
Line: 9.5 yards
Mean Projection: 7.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: November 3, 12:26pm ET
Notes: The Eagles are 14-point favorites and Burkhead has only gone over this number once in his past six games.
4. Marcus Mariota rushing yards
Line: 36.5 yards
Mean Projection: 36.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 3, 3:59pm ET
Notes: The projection here is tight, but on mean/median we are showing roughly 10% of EV.
5. Miles Sanders rushing yards
Line: 77.5 yards
Mean Projection: 76.2 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+120)
Date: November 3, 4:17pm ET
Notes: We have double-checked our splits between Sanders/Gainwell/Scott/Hurts. We also get some increased equity for rest — both short week and blowout.
6. Aaron Rodgers passing yards
Line: 248.5 yards
Mean Projection: 273.0 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: November 3, 4:49pm ET
Notes: The Lions defense, offense, and turf creates a Coors Field situation. Getting Allen Lazard back with Rodgers is a boost as well.
7. DJ Moore receiving yards
Line: 68.5 yards
Mean Projection: 65.9 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 3, 5:08pm ET
Notes: The under is 6-2 against this line so far this year.
8. Jalen Hurts passing yards
Line: 229.5 yards
Mean Projection: 255.8 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: November 3, 5:49pm ET
Notes: The market appears to be over-accounting for potential game script here. Hurts is 5-2 against this number so far.
9. Matthew Stafford passing yards
Line: 258.5 yards
Mean Projection: 243.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 3, 7:22pm ET
Notes: The Ram offensive line has been a mess this season, and Stafford has cleared this number just twice as a result.
10. Khalil Herbert rushing yards
Line: 33.5 yards
Mean Projection: 50 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: November 3, 7:51pm ET
Notes: We believe the split between Herbert and David Montgomery could get quite close. Herbert could also get there on efficiency.
11. TJ Hockenson receiving yards
Line: 37.5 yards
Mean Projection: 32.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: November 3, 8:01pm ET
Notes: Playing for a new team on a short week after a trade will make it difficult to play a full complement of snaps.
12. Raheem Mostert carries
Line: 14.5 carries
Mean Projection: 13.6 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+105)
Date: November 4, 9:23am ET
Notes: Mostert got banged up last week against Detroit, and the addition of Jeff Wilson should siphon some work away.
13. D’Andre Swift rush yards
Line: 39.5 yards
Mean Projection: 32.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: November 4, 4:06pm ET
Notes: Swift is going to play, but his ankle and shoulder issues are extremely concerning.
14. Tyler Higbee receptions
Line: 4.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 4.0 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+120)
Date: November 4, 4:41pm ET
Notes: Higbee’s routes have fallen off the last couple weeks as he’s been asked to stay in and block more. Couple that with Van Jefferson’s return, and Higbee’s elite target share from early in the season is unlikely to hold.
15. Justin Fields pass attempts
Line: 22.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 25.6 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: November 4, 5:46pm ET
Notes: Fields has cleared this line in two of the last three games after starting off the season with a historically low pass rate.
16. Kirk Cousins completions
Line: 20.5 completions
Mean Projection: 23.3 completions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-135)
Date: November 4, 6:54pm ET
Notes: Captain Kirk has cleared this line all but once this season when he finished with 20. The Vikings continue to pass at a healthy clip and now face a weak Washington secondary.
17. Hayden Hurst receptions
Line: 4.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.7 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-140)
Date: November 4, 10:15pm ET
Notes: Yes, Ja’Marr Chase is out, but this is a high line for any tight end not named Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews.
18. JuJu Smith-Schuster receiving yards
Line: 59.5 yards
Mean Projection: 55.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 4, 10:23pm ET
Notes: Kadarius Toney’s addition adds some volatility to this WR group and more potential downside in target share for the other pass-catchers.
19. Leonard Fournette carries
Line: 12.5 carries
Mean Projection: 15.1 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-125)
Date: November 5, 10:12am ET
Notes: Todd Bowles has noted he would like to run the ball more, and Fournette still has a huge edge in snaps on Rachaad White.
20. Rhamondre Stevenson carries
Line: 16.5 carries
Mean Projection: 15.0 carries if Harris IN, 20-22 carries if Harris OUT
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: November 5, 12:44pm ET
Notes: This is a bad but not dead bet if Damien Harris is IN and a smash bet if Damien Harris is OUT. Harris has three straight DNPs this week.
21. David Montgomery carries
Line: 13.5 carries
Mean Projection: 12.0
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: November 5, 7:20pm ET
Notes: The Bears have trusted Justin Fields a bit more of late, and Khalil Herbert is cutting into Montgomery’s role.
22. Khalil Herbert carries
Line: 8.5 carries
Mean Projection: 10.2
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-108)
Date: November 5, 7:23pm ET
Notes: We’re doubling down on the Bears’ backfield split a bit here. Montgomery should get the early drives, but the two have split nearly equally the last couple of weeks.
23. Josh Jacobs carries
Line: 17.5 carries
Mean Projection: 20.3
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-125)
Date: November 5, 7:31pm ET
Notes: There’s always injury and game script risk with a carry line this high, but we still think it’s too low and an overreaction to the Raiders’ offensive woes last week.
24. Jonnu Smith catches
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.9
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+120)
Date: November 5, 7:40pm ET
Notes: Smith is over in 4/7 games this season, and his role is near its peak right now. We’ll take this line at plus money.
25. Robert Woods receiving yards
Line: 38.5 yards
Mean Projection: 35.9 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: November 6, 8:37am ET
Notes: We are expecting inept thrower Malik Willis to start. Even if Ryan Tannehill (ankle) ends up active, this bet is live.
26. Patrick Mahomes rushing yards
Line: 20.5 yards
Mean Projection: 19.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: November 6, 9:18am ET
Notes: This is largely a projections and mean-median bet, as our numbers indicate Mahomes is likely to stay under this line.
27. DK Metcalf receptions
Line: 4.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 6.0 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-128)
Date: November 6, 8:37am ET
Notes: We are expecting inept thrower Malik Willis to start. Even if Ryan Tannehill (ankle) ends up active, this bet is live.
28. Sammy Watkins receiving yards
Line: 22.5 yards
Mean Projection: 19.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 6, 12:09pm ET
Notes: Watkins looks like WR4 on the Green Bay depth chart with Allen Lazard and Christian Watson active.
29. Antonio Gibson rush attempts
Line: 7.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 10.0 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-102)
Date: November 6, 12:51pm ET
Notes: Gibson only had one fewer carry than Brian Robinson last week and has looked much more explosive with the ball in his hands.
30. Devin Duvernay receiving yards
Line: 43.5 yards
Mean Projection: 39.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+110)
Date: November 7, 10:32am ET
Notes: We believe the Ravens could pass less with so many of their weapons out, and Duvernay has not been a huge volume recipient even with chances.
31. Marquez Callaway receiving yards
Line: 25.5 yards
Mean Projection: 20.0 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: November 7, 4:58pm ET
Notes: Callaway’s routes torpedoed last week in favor of other Saints WRs, and we project 20.0 yards despite assuming Jarvis Landry out. His projection could dip further if Landry plays.
