Week 1 Officials Record: 10-7, +$250
Week 1 Alts: 2-12, +$52
Overall Officials: 10-7, +$250; +11.61% ROI
Overall Alts: 2-12, +$52; +27.43% ROI
Props Total: +$302; +12.90% ROI
The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at Week 1.
Ja’Lynn Polk U35.5 Receiving Yards -120 (6, W)
Mean projection: 25.6
We expected that the 37th overall pick would be splitting WR3 snaps with K.J. Osborn to start the year, but this line assumed that Polk was easily ahead of Osborn and would effectively be a starter in 3-WR sets.
Consider that fellow rookie WR Rome Odunze, a superior prospect with a better QB who was a lock to be starting in 3-WR sets for the Bears, had an opening line just a few yards higher than Polk’s.
Even if we were wrong and Polk was the starter and well ahead of Osborn, we still had plenty of outs at this number.
It turned out to be a fairly close split, with Polk getting 62% of snaps to Osborn’s 48%. The rookie was a poor target earner though, with a 6% Target per Route Run (TPRR) rate, while Osborn dominated looks with a 14% TPRR and a team-leading 27% target share.
ETR NFL Player Props
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