NFL Props Review: Week 12

Week 12 Record: 24-13, $870

YTD: 173-147, $790

The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at Week 12. 

Dameon Pierce U37.5 Rushing Yards -130 (14, W)

Mean proj: 33

&

Dameon Pierce U10.5 Rushing Attempts -115 (5, W)

Mean proj: 8.9

Linemakers had a bigger role in mind for Pierce than the Texans did.

Pierce hadn’t played since late October with an ankle injury, and though Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik said they “believe wholeheartedly in sharing the load” once Pierce was back, the reality is Devin Singletary performed well enough in his absence to preserve the lead in this backfield, and that’s what we saw.

While Pierce wasn’t too far off on rushing share, Singletary absolutely dominated snaps.

We projected a 50% to 34.5% split on carries in favor of Singletary, so Pierce had a bit more rushing work than expected, but we had plenty of room for error with this elevated line.

Greg Dortch U30.5 Receiving Yards -110 (27, W) 

Mean proj: 20.9

Now and then it’s nice to just luck-box into a win when your read is off.

This was basically a bet on the split between Greg Dortch and Zach Pascal — we projected Pascal behind at a 5.5% share to Dortch’s 8.5%, but the gap was much wider. Dortch played 80% of snaps and his 20% target share was second on the team.

He accumulated a massive nine targets (we projected 2.8), so we were quite fortunate to survive this one with a win.

Patrick Mahomes O33.5 Passing Attempts +100 (34, W)