Week 3 Record: 13-12, -$95
YTD: 36-42, -$1,424
The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at Week 3.
Kendre Miller U51.5 Rushing Yards (34, W)
Mean proj: 34
A 51.5 opener on a running back coming off a multi-week hamstring injury — truly a throwback to a golden age of props when bad lines were bountiful and eyeballs were few.
Even if Miller was assured a starting role in his NFL debut, 51.5 yards was still too high.
We had a mean projection of 34 when we released the play, eventually adjusting up to what was ultimately a generous 46.5 projection:
ETR Projections (actual)
- Carries: 11.1 (9)
- Carry Share: 46% (41%)
- YPC: 4.19 (3.78)
Jahmyr Gibbs U11.5 Rushing Attempts (17, L)
Mean proj: 9.6
On the other end of the spectrum, we whiffed hard on another rookie RB’s usage as Dan Campbell dared to dream of the dynamic Gibbs as a between-the-tackles workhorse, something he was rarely asked to do in college.
But that’s what he was against the Falcons.
Gibbs is far more dynamic as a pass catcher than a rusher, so the David Montgomery-like usage (just one reception) was a surprising choice, but we’ll wear the L for the miss on this one.
Mike Williams O4.5 Receptions -130 (7, W)
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