Week 7 Record: 19-13, +$447
YTD: 93-85, -$293
The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at Week 7.
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Let’s tackle this game as a whole since we had five bets from this NFC South matchup, and it was the difference between a solid week and a big one.
Baker Mayfield Under 227.5 Passing Yards -114 (275, L)
Mean proj: 214.6
Baker Mayfield Under 12.5 Rushing Yards -114 (32, L)
Mean proj: 10.2
Chris Godwin Under 5.5 Receptions -130 (6, L)
Mean proj: 5
Cade Otton Under 24.5 Receiving Yards -114 (43, L)
Mean proj: 24
Mack Hollins Under 16.5 Receiving Yards -123 (0, W)
Mean proj: 14.3
We’re sometimes going to lean into spots where we think our projections have an edge over the market, but missing on the Bucs’ pass rate cost us three of these props:
ETR Projections (Actual)
- Offensive Plays: 60 (65)
- Pass Rate: 59.5% (71.1%)
- Pass Attempts: 32.5 (42)
Play volume was projected about right, but the extreme 71.1% pass rate killed Mayfield’s passing prop, and likely the receiving props for both Godwin and Otton too.
Tampa’s 4.8% PROE (Pass Rate Over Expected) was easily their highest mark on the year and a bit of a surprise against a Falcons defense that offenses had been playing balanced against all year (-0.8% PROE against) up until now.
As for Mayfield’s rushing prop, we had a median result of eight yards for a strong EV (Expected Value) of $18. He was averaging five attempts per game coming into the week and only had three attempts on Sunday — unfortunately one of those was a 21-yard scramble on the final drive to bury us.
Unlike the passing props, this was more likely a good bet with a bad result.
On the bright side, we were able to get ahead of the declining role for Mack Hollins since Atlanta acquired Van Jefferson. Hollins ran a season-low 11% of routes, earning zero targets. He’s now firmly behind Jefferson (57% routes) and unlikely to be given a line in the weeks ahead.
Donovan Peoples-Jones Under 1.5 Receptions +150 (2, L)
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