NFL Week 18 Motivation

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Understanding which teams are motivated and likely to play their starters is a prerequisite for winning in Week 18. For the fastest look at motivation, I’ve ranked each team from 1-10, with 1 being the least motivation and 10 being the most.

Here is more context and quotes on the Week 18 motivation:

AFC

1. Chiefs (15-1)

SITUATION: The Chiefs are locked into the top seed in the AFC.
OUTLOOK: Andy Reid has a history of resting his starters in these spots. Jay Glazer reported he expects starters to rest. It is also worth noting that the Chiefs are coming off of playing 3 games in 11 days. Expect Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the starters to sit.

*UPDATE* Reid has officially named Carson Wentz the starter for Sunday. He said the team will handle things similarly to last year, when they rested all starters.

2. Bills (13-3)

SITUATION: The Bills are locked into the 2 seed in the AFC.
OUTLOOK: The Bills have nothing to play for unless Sean McDermott wants Josh Allen to put an accent on his MVP push. After Sunday’s win against the Jets, Allen stated it was “very important” to lock up the 2 seed because “it gives us an option to give guys rest”. McDermott said this week he knows Josh Allen’s consecutive starts streak is very important to him, so expect Allen to play for “a short time” then come out of the game. We are expecting 1-2 drives.

3. Ravens (11-5)

SITUATION: The Ravens win the AFC North with a win or Steeler loss. A loss and Steeler win against Cincinnati would drop them to the 5 or 6 seed.
OUTLOOK: Baltimore should go all-out against the Browns on Saturday to ensure a first-round home game and division title. This is reflected in them being 18-point favorites at home in the early game Saturday. The Steelers play the late game, so the Ravens won’t have the benefit of scoreboard watching or early information.

4. Texans (9-7)

SITUATION: Houston is locked into the 4 seed in the AFC.
OUTLOOK: The Texans have nothing to play for here, and have already suffered some major injuries. However, the offense has been broken for weeks. We expect the starters to play some — maybe a full half, or maybe until they simply put a good drive together. They are searching for confidence on offense heading into the playoffs.

5. Steelers (10-6)

SITUATION: Pittsburgh can still win the AFC North with a win and Ravens loss. A loss would open up the Chargers to jump them for the 5 seed.
OUTLOOK: The scheduling here is important, as the Ravens play the first game of the weekend. If they win, Pittsburgh will no longer be able to win the AFC North and get the No. 3 seed. So they could be motivated to rest players. Mike Tomlin has not been in a situation yet to play for seeding in the 14-team format.

6. Chargers (10-6)

SITUATION: Los Angeles is locked into either the 5 or 6 seed.
OUTLOOK: The Steelers play on Saturday night. If they beat the Bengals, the Chargers will have nothing to play for. Should the Steelers lose, a win would earn the Chargers the 5 seed. That seed may be perceived as valuable given that the Texans are a far more appetizing matchup than the Ravens.

7. Broncos (9-7)

SITUATION: Denver can lock up a playoff spot with a win.
OUTLOOK: This is a must-win game for Denver, they’ll be all-out to win Sunday.

8. Dolphins (8-8)

SITUATION: Miami needs a win to have a shot at a playoff birth.
OUTLOOK: Miami plays at the same time as Denver, who they need to lose in order to jump in the standings. Dolphins will be all-out to win Sunday.

9. Bengals (8-8)

SITUATION: Cincinnati needs a win to have a shot at a playoff birth.
OUTLOOK: The Bengals will be going all-out as they look to sneak into the playoffs. They would need a win and losses by both Denver and Miami. But the Bengals play on Saturday while Denver and Miami play Sunday.

JUST ELIMINATED IN WEEK 17

* Colts

BEEN ELIMINATED

* Jets, Raiders, Jaguars, Browns, Titans, Patriots

NFC

1. Lions and 5. Vikings (14-2)

SITUATION: This game will determine who wins the NFC North, and the 1 seed in the conference.
OUTLOOK: Both teams will be going all-out as this game has massive playoff ramifications.

2. Eagles (13-3)

SITUATION: Philly is locked into the 2 seed in the NFC.
OUTLOOK: The Eagles play a meaningless game against the Giants. With Jalen Hurts coming off a concussion, there will likely be some rest motivation. And even though Saquon Barkley is chasing Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record (he needs 101 rushing yards against his former team in Week 18), we expect the Eagles to mostly rest their starters in this spot. They have legit Super Bowl aspirations.

Update: The Eagles confirmed Wednesday they will be resting starters Sunday against the Giants.

3. Rams (10-6)

SITUATION: LA will be either the 3 or 4 seed.
OUTLOOK: The Rams need to win in order to ensure they earn the No. 3 seed. That seems important, as they’d avoid a matchup with the Vikings/Lions Week 18 winner in Round 1 of the playoffs. However, Sean McVay has a long history of resting starters in these situations. He’s already said he expects to do that again, and is excited to see guys like Jimmy Garoppolo and Blake Corum. We expect all Rams starters to rest.

4. Bucs (9-7)

SITUATION: Tampa Bay needs to win in order to make the playoffs.
OUTLOOK: The Bucs’ only options are winning the NFC South or be eliminated from the playoffs. They will be going all-out against New Orleans.

6. Commanders (11-5)

SITUATION: Washington will either be the 6 or 7 seed in the NFC.
OUTLOOK: The Commanders can only be jumped by the Packers, and the teams play at the same time. Note that the Commanders appear focused on avoiding playing at PHI in Round 1: Dan Quinn when asked about playing guys who are banged up in Week 18: “We’re going to go after this as hard as we can. The seeding part of it, we think is really important. … We realize having the 6th seed is a good thing, and we’re going to fight like hell to keep that.”

7. Packers (11-5)

SITUATION: Green Bay will either be the 6 or 7 seed in the NFC.
OUTLOOK: The Packers are locked into the playoffs, and can only get to the 6 seed with a win and Commanders loss. In 2021, Matt LaFleur’s Packers had the 1 seed locked up and still elected to play his starters a half. If the Commanders get a lead, we could see Green Bay rest late.

9. Falcons (8-8)

SITUATION: Atlanta needs a win for a shot at the NFC South/playoffs.
OUTLOOK: The Falcons’ only chance to make the playoffs requires a win on Sunday. They will be going all-out.

JUST ELIMINATED IN WEEK 17

* Seahawks

BEEN ELIMINATED

* Cowboys, Cardinals, 49ers, Saints, Bears, Panthers, Giants