NFL Week 18 Motivation

 

Understanding which teams are motivated and likely to play their starters is a prerequisite for winning in Week 18. For the fastest look at motivation, I’ve ranked each team from 1-10, with 1 being the least motivated and 10 being the most.

 

Broncos: 10
Patriots: 7
Jaguars: 10
Steelers: 10
Texans: 10
Chargers: 1
Bills: 3
Ravens: 10

 

 

Here is more context and quotes on the Week 18 motivation:

 

AFC

 

1. Broncos (13-3)

SITUATION: A Denver win locks them into the top seed in the AFC.
OUTLOOK: This is pretty simple. There is only one bye available, and it is for the top seed in the conference. The Broncos control their own destiny and will be all-out to beat the Chargers Week 18.

 

2. Patriots (13-3)

SITUATION: The Patriots could get to the No. 1 seed with a win and a Denver loss. They could also fall to the No. 3 seed with a loss and a Jacksonville win. Otherwise, they are the No. 2 seed.
OUTLOOK: While New England technically has a shot at the top seed, it would require the Broncos to lose to a Chargers team resting their starters. Mike Vrabel stated that starters will play if healthy: “Probably everybody who’s healthy will play,” Vrabel said. “I mean, that’s just where we’re at, and I haven’t looked too far into it this morning here. But I would anticipate everybody who’s healthy will play in the football game.”

Note that the Patriots and Broncos both play at 425pm ET in Week 18. We could see some scoreboard watching from Vrabel — if the Broncos are in trouble, the Pats should go all-out to win.

 

3. Jaguars (12-4)

SITUATION: Jacksonville locks up the AFC South with a win on Sunday. A loss would open up the Texans to steal it.
OUTLOOK: The Jaguars should go all out to win the division, and earn a home game in the first round of playoffs.

 

4. Steelers (9-7) and 9. Ravens (8-8)

SITUATION: Pittsburgh plays Baltimore for the AFC North crown. The loser is out of the playoffs.
OUTLOOK: Both teams will be going all out to try to make the postseason.

 

5. Texans (11-5)

SITUATION: Houston can still win the AFC South with a win and a Jaguars loss. Otherwise, a win keeps them at the No. 5 seed.
OUTLOOK: The Texans should be going all out for this game. Even if Jacksonville (which plays at the same time) were to win their game, Houston has a lot of incentive to keep their position at No. 5 in the AFC. It is the difference between facing the AFC North winner and a team with 12+ wins.

 

6. Chargers (11-5)

SITUATION: Los Angeles is locked into a Wild Card spot. They can’t get higher than the 6 seed.
OUTLOOK: The Chargers have relatively nothing to play for, and could use a week to get healthy. Jim Harbaugh has acknowledged this and has already stated that Trey Lance is expected to start instead of Justin Herbert. We expect other starters to sit as well.

 

7. Bills (11-5)

SITUATION: Buffalo is locked into a Wild Card spot.
OUTLOOK: The Bills are only playing for seeding, and head coach Sean McDermott appears conflicted so far: “Where do you want to start? We’ve got a lot of things we need to discuss as a leadership group,” McDermott said. “You’ve got the last game in Highmark Stadium here. That’s important to me; it’ll be important to our guys, to our staff. Then there are other things that come into consideration. It won’t be easy, but it is important that we have a good week here.”

It is worth noting that Josh Allen finished Week 17 with an injury, which could outweigh any seeding or momentum goals for Week 18. It’s also worth noting that the Bills could beat the pathetic Jets without playing their starters a ton.

 

JUST ELIMINATED IN WEEK 17

* Colts — expected to start Riley Leonard in Week 18. Expecting other evaluation spots.

 

BEEN ELIMINATED

* Raiders, Jets, Titans, Browns, Chiefs, Bengals, and Dolphins

 

---

 

NFC

 

1. Seahawks (13-3) and 5. 49ers (12-4)

SITUATION: This game will determine who wins the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the conference.
OUTLOOK: Both teams will be going all out, as this game has massive playoff ramifications.

 

2. Bears (11-5)

SITUATION: Chicago locks up the No. 2 seed with a win on Sunday. They cannot fall farther than No. 3.
OUTLOOK: The Bears need a win over the Lions to avoid the NFC West teams in the first round of the playoffs. Ben Johnson indicated they will play for the No. 2 seed: “Yeah, we’re playing to win this week.” We are inclinced to believe him for now — there is a difference between facing the Packers and facing one of Rams/Seahawks/49ers. Dan Campbell is likely to match fire with fire, and we should expect a legit game here.

 

3. Eagles (11-5)

SITUATION: The Eagles will be the No. 3 seed unless they win and the Bears lose to Detroit.
OUTLOOK: Philly has a small chance at the No. 2 seed, but they may opt to rest up for the playoffs. Mike Garafolo has indicated that the Eagles are considering resting “some starters” in Week 18 against Commanders. This is a contest that could feature starters for less than a full game, even if they suit up.

 

4. Panthers (8-8) and 11. Bucs (7-9)

SITUATION: Carolina plays Tampa Bay for the NFC South. The loser is eliminated.
OUTLOOK: If the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday, this game will actually not matter. But since it is played on Saturday, both teams will be going all out for a chance to make the playoffs.

 

6. Rams (11-5)

SITUATION: The Rams can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win and a Niners loss. Otherwise, they will be the No. 6 seed.
OUTLOOK: The NFC West title game will already be in the books, and it should give a bit of a clearer picture here. If San Francisco wins, the Rams cannot advance their seeding and should be considered likely to rest. If Seattle wins, L.A. has a shot at the No. 5 seed, which they may play for, given the difference in matchup quality for Round 1. Sean McVay stated the starters would play after the Monday Night Football loss to Atlanta: “No, they were going to play anyway,” McVay said. “We need to play. We need to play better football. So I don’t know what the consequences are in those different types of things, but we’ve got to play better.”

It is worth noting that McVay has basically never played for seeding, and the Cardinals (their Week 18 opponent) are awful. The starters may participate in an effort to get some momentum going into the playoffs, but it would be surprising to see them play the whole game.

 

7. Packers (9-6-1)

SITUATION: Green Bay is locked into the No. 7 seed.
OUTLOOK: The Packers cannot advance their seeding and are an extremely banged-up team right now. We consider them likely to rest a ton of starters in Week 18.

 

JUST ELIMINATED IN WEEK 17

* Lions

 

BEEN ELIMINATED

* Vikings, Cowboys, Falcons, Saints, Commanders, Cardinals, and Giants