Going forward I’ll be adding a Top Values section to the top of this column where I will identify significant price disparities between sportsbooks where that particular awards candidate has a realistic path to competing for that award long term. Beyond that, I will continue providing a lay of the land in various awards market so that if you are considering a bet, you know what you are getting into. As always, the foundation of my awards process is built off of my annual Who Wins Awards and Why article.
Top Values
Note: These aren’t automatic buys, but every awards candidate provided in this section has a realistic path to winning their respective award while also being available at an advantageous price at certain sportsbooks.
MVP: Tom Brady (+500 PointsBet to +800 DraftKings, FanDuel)
Brady is second in the league in touchdown passes, fifth in QBR, and fifth in rating for the 5-1 Buccaneers. He’s right on target statistically in the MVP race. Thursday Night Football in Philadelphia this week and Week 7 vs Chicago are two contests where those opposing fronts could give Brady some trouble. Beyond that, Tampa Bay has a very manageable schedule, where Week 14’s matchup versus Josh Allen‘s Bills could determine this year’s MVP race. Barring injury, both Brady and Allen could realistically be the two top MVP contenders entering that contest. Outside of an upset by either the Eagles or Bears in the next two weeks, +800 could very easily be the cheapest you can get a Brady MVP ticket before that Week 14 matchup against Buffalo.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Najee Harris (+600 PointsBet to +1400 BetMGM)
Outside of a 16:1 Trey Lance Offensive Rookie of the Year ticket I bought last spring, I have largely avoided this race because of the abnormal number of legitimate contenders this year. With that said, Harris is a volume monster and he should not be available at +1400 right now considering that all five of the first-round quarterbacks are struggling to various degrees. With a potential showcase game on Sunday Night Football against the Russell Wilson-less Seahawks this week, if you are considering a Harris OROY ticket, now is the time to grab one.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Gregory Rousseau (+1200 DraftKings to +1800 PointsBet)
After a strong game on Sunday Night Football against the Chiefs, I’m quite surprised that Rousseau is still available at +1800 odds. I’m not sure Rousseau ultimately gets there, but three sacks and an interception through the first five games is pretty close to the production last year’s winner Chase Young had to this point in the season. I’m going to pass on this one because I already have a JOK ticket and Micah Parsons is in an excellent position, but Rousseau’s price should be much closer to the 12:1 range than the 18:1 you could currently get him at on PointsBet.
Coach of the Year: Mike McCarthy (+1100 BetMGM to +2000 PointsBet)
The Chargers and Cowboys are very comparable teams right now, with the Cowboys getting an edge in my book since they beat Los Angeles on the road. McCarthy and Brandon Staley are relative parallels in the Coach of the Year race as well, as both teams closed with 9.5-win totals despite finishing under .500 last year. For either of these coaches to win this award, their team is going to have to be among the best in their conference. Right now, that looks very achievable for both teams. That’s why McCarthy at +2000 odds vs the favorite Staley at +450 odds represents an opportunity for those that bet on value. I already have a McCarthy COTY ticket at better odds than this, but if I didn’t, I would definitely consider one now as I view him as a top three candidate in this race along with Staley and the Cardinals’ Kliff Kingsbury.
Coach of the Year: Matt Rhule (+1200 PointsBet to +2500 FanDuel)
I discussed Rhule as an interesting candidate in this race before the season began. That said, Rhule specifically needs Kliff Kingsbury‘s Cardinals to fail, as Arizona is already just three games away from reaching their 8-game win total. If the Cardinals begin to stumble, Rhule could then potentially become the coach on the overachieving team that awards voters could ultimately side with over options like Brandon Staley or Mike McCarthy. If you’re interested in Rhule, being able to get him at essentially half price on FanDuel is definitely a value play.
The MVP Race
| Week 6 | Week 7 |
| Ravens vs Chargers | Cardinals vs Texans |
| Bills at Titans (MNF) | Buccaneers vs Bears |
| Cardinals at Browns | Ravens vs Bengals |
| Cowboys at Patriots | Rams vs Lions |
| Buccaneers at Eagles (TNF) | Packers vs Washington |
| Chiefs at Washington | Chiefs at Titans |
| Packers at Bears |
Josh Allen (+450 to +500 PointsBet)
MVPs tend to be the quarterback on the top seed in their conference. The Bills are one of the league’s juggernauts and Allen is starting to lay waste to opponents on a consistent basis, as he did in Kanas City in front of a national audience last Sunday night. The Bills head to the Titans for Monday Night Football in Week 6 before their Week 7 bye. Buffalo’s Week 14 trip to Tampa Bay to face Tom Brady‘s Buccaneers could be the game that decides the MVP award this year.
Kyler Murray (+500 to +650 PointsBet)
Murray’s 5-0 Cardinals head to Cleveland for a very losable game against the Browns this week. I have said many times that I love Murray as a player, but my biggest concern with his MVP candidacy is schedule related, as the Cardinals still have up to nine games against potential playoff teams this season where the Bills, Buccaneers, Cowboys, and Chargers have much more manageable schedules. With that said, Arizona may have caught a little break on that front with Russell Wilson‘s injury, as Week 11’s trip to Seattle will be much more manageable if Russ remains sidelined.
Dak Prescott (+600 FanDuel to +700 DraftKings, PointsBet)
I feel pretty good about my 20:1 Dak MVP ticket, although Josh Allen is in an excellent position at the top of this race. The Cowboys are a real contender in the NFC that are routinely dominating opponents, so Dallas has a shot to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Statistically, Dak is currently third in touchdown passes and second in rating while having to make up ground in QBR where he’s 13th. The Cowboys head to New England this week as 3.5-point road favorites before entering their Week 7 bye. An advantage that Dak has over most MVP contenders is that the Cowboys’ schedule is littered with games that will be played in front of national audiences.
Justin Herbert (+600 FanDuel to +700 DraftKings, FoxBet)
Statistically, Herbert is tied for third in touchdown passes, fourth in QBR, and 10th in rating for the 4-1 Chargers. In Week 6, the Chargers head to Baltimore where they will face the Ravens with backups on the right side of their offensive line. Along with Thursday Night Football vs Kansas City in Week 15, these are the two most difficult games remaining on the Chargers’ schedule.
Matthew Stafford (+900 FanDuel to +1200 PointsBet)
Stafford and the Rams have a pretty soft schedule run coming at the Giants, vs Detroit, at Houston, and vs Tennessee on Sunday Night Football. From there, the Rams’ schedule is filled with difficult opponents, which you could argue actually starts with the Titans game. Ultimately, it would not be a surprise if Stafford became a more expensive MVP buy over the next month, but he’s going to have to get through a much tougher late-season schedule than most of the remaining MVP candidates.
Lamar Jackson (+900 Fox Bet to +1400 PointsBet)
Lamar has carried the Ravens to their 4-1 record, which is an expectation I had when I bought a Lamar MVP ticket at 17:1 odds in May. With that said, there are two core concerns going forward. The first is can Lamar continue to carry the Ravens, to which I would answer yes. The second is the Ravens have more difficult opponents remaining on their schedule than a number of other MVP candidates, and their defense does not appear to be the force that it has been for most of this century.
On the Radar: Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Ja’Marr Chase (+333 Fox Bet to +375 BetMGM)
While wide receivers rarely win the Offensive Rookie of the Year, Chase should probably be a more substantial favorite at this point as he’s easily having the best rookie season through the first five games.
Mac Jones (+380 FanDuel to +450 PointsBet)
Jones was pretty solid against Tampa Bay a few weeks ago, which is something that is likely going to stick for awards voters. In general, he’s been more consistent than the other rookie quarterbacks but has yet to do anything spectacular.
Trevor Lawrence (+450 PointsBet to +800 BetMGM)
Lawrence is getting better and he’s starting to run more, which is baffling in a sense as one of his best traits is his rushing ability. Long term, I think Lawrence will be fine. But for this year, my concern with Lawrence’s OROY candidacy has way more to do with Urban Meyer than Lawrence himself. Still, this race is still wide open enough where if Lawrence gets hot, he could make up ground in a hurry.
On the Radar: Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Micah Parsons (+325 BetMGM to +350 DraftKings, FanDuel, Fox Bet, PointsBet)
Parsons was arguably the highest profile defensive player in this year’s draft and he’s playing very well for a major brand in the Dallas Cowboys. He remains in the driver’s seat in this race, while having many opportunities to impress in front of national audiences.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (+650 PointsBet to +800 BetMGM)
JOK is my guy. I’m comfortable with my JOK 14:1 DROY ticket because he’s awesome and people are starting to notice, which is why he’s becoming more expensive in this race. If he’s going to overcome Micah Parsons, JOK is going to need more splash plays.
On the Radar: Jayson Oweh, Azeez Ojulari, Patrick Surtain and Asante Samuel Jr.
Defensive Player of the Year
Myles Garrett (+275 PointsBet to +350 BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel)
Garrett is a high-profile defensive player that leads the league in sacks with seven. As long as the Browns continue to be a playoff-bound football team and Garrett stays healthy, he’ll be a major factor in this race. I bought a Garrett DPOY ticket at +650 last May; right now I think there is a very good chance I’ll be cashing that ticket in a few months.
Aaron Donald (+600 PointsBet to +700 FanDuel)
Donald only has three sacks to date, but no defensive player has a greater reputation and the Rams will be entering a string of four games against very beatable opponents. As long as Donald continues to have a good year, he’ll be a factor in this race because of his reputation paired with the Rams being a high-level defense on a contending team. I also want to mention that pressure and disruption have always been more important than sack totals when it comes to actual football, and there are some signs that awards voters are seeing it that way as well.
Trevon Diggs (+800 PointsBet to +900 BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel)
Diggs already has six interceptions and he’s scored on one, which can be a legitimate factor in the DPOY race. There are a lot of commonalities between Diggs and Xavien Howard, as both are big, athletic corners with excellent ball skills that opponents continue to challenge. Two major advantages that Diggs has over Howard is that the Cowboys are contenders and they play a very high percentage of their games in front of national audiences. Diggs was a few inches away from having three interceptions against the Giants last week. As long as opposing offenses continue to challenge Diggs, he has a very real shot of winning this award.
Coach of the Year
Brandon Staley (+400 PointsBet to +450 BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel)
As we discussed entering the season, Staley’s early line movements largely mimicked that of last year’s Coach of the Year, Kevin Stefanski. Coach of the Year unfolds fairly similar to MVP, as there are usually half a dozen real candidates or more at the halfway point of the season. We can expect Staley to be in this conversation for the rest of the season given the Chargers’ manageable schedule.
Kliff Kingsbury (+750 Fanduel, PointsBet to +850 DraftKings)
Kingsbury would win this award if the season ended today, as no one has exceeded expectations more than the undefeated Cardinals to this point. He’s behind Brandon Staley in this race in terms of odds for two reasons: Arizona’s remaining difficult schedule and the Chargers’ very manageable remaining schedule. Still, as long as Kyler Murray remains healthy, the Cardinals have a realistic shot of winning 12 or more games. When I was writing that Kingsbury was a misprice at 45:1 odds this offseason, I bought a ticket at that point which, paired with my Mike McCarthy ticket, has put me in a position where I should probably consider hedging with a Staley bet, as one of those three coaches likely wins this award based on the first five weeks of the season.
Sean McDermott (+750 PointsBet to +1100 DraftKings)
The Bills basically have to go undefeated from here for Buffalo to exceed expectations, which is why we have to usually avoid betting on coaches that are already expected to contend for a title. The one caveat I have to that foundational awards tenant in this situation is McDermott genuinely deserves to win this award for what he’s accomplished since becoming the head coach of the Buffalo Bills. While that’s usually not a factor, it could become one here.
Comeback Player of the Year
Dak Prescott (-200 PointsBet to -175 BetMGM, DraftKings)
Outside of injury, the best chance Dak has of losing this race is if he wins the MVP. Even in that event, he might win both awards.
On the Radar: Joe Burrow, Sam Darnold, and Jameis Winston
