We’re nearly at the halfway point in the NFL regular season, where no race is over, but most of them are starting to truly take shape. We’ll go through some value options with notes on several markets as usual, while taking a deeper dive into the Coach of the Year and MVP races.
Value Options
MVP: Derrick Henry (+2000 to +8000 FanDuel)
When we did our first awards show of the season a few weeks ago, our Adam Levitan pointed out Henry at +15000 in the MVP race. As you can see, Henry is being priced as low as +2000 in the MVP race while being the standalone OPOY favorite.
Obviously if you got Henry in the 150-1 range, you don’t need to consider him here. But if you didn’t, Henry has a real shot at 2,000 rushing yards and 20+ touchdowns on what will likely end up as the best offense in the league. Like Adam mentioned weeks ago, Henry also has the legacy component here. You can get Henry at an extreme value, and if he continues his current production pace, that +8000 isn’t going to last, just like +15000 didn’t.
Coach of the Year: Jonathan Gannon (+1500 to +2200 DraftKings, Caesars)
My preseason outlook on the Cardinals was that they would struggle early against their tough schedule, while surging late once the schedule softens. The Cardinals have not been overly impressive through the first half, but they are in a better position than I expected at 4-4 with a real shot at the NFC West crown or a Wild Card berth.
Arizona’s remaining schedule: vs. CHI, vs. NYJ, Bye, at SEA, at MIN, vs. SEA, vs. NE, at CAR, at LAR, vs. SF.
This week’s game against Chicago is a high-leverage spot, as it could end up being a tiebreaker in the Wild Card race at season’s end. If you think Arizona wins that game, I expect Gannon to fall to roughly +800 odds with a Cardinals win. If you lean towards Chicago winning, which I do, Gannon likely dips into the +2500 to +3000 range.
Strategically, this race changes late more than any other race, where I usually only bet on one coach before the season and then make a pivot or two in the final quarter. I’m going to take a wait-and-see approach on Gannon, where I kind of hope he loses this week.
Coach of the Year: Sean McVay (+2200 to +3500 BetMGM, ESPNBET)
Nearly everything I just said about Gannon’s Cardinals applies to the Rams, with a few core differences. The first, and most obvious, is the Rams are 3-4 while the Cardinals are 4-4. Arizona also gets a game against the Panthers, which the Rams do not. Both teams have high-end quarterbacks, but you could argue that McVay is the second-best coach in the league after Andy Reid, and the Rams are healthy on offense for the first time this season.
At Seattle, vs. Miami, and at New England are all winnable games for the Rams. Ultimately, I think the Rams fall short, and they made the playoffs last year, which is another factor. But, overcoming injuries has been a big narrative behind recent winners. If the Rams surge after their 1-4 start, McVay will have a very interesting case.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Calen Bullock/Beanie Bishop (+6000 ESPNBet)
Rams edge rusher Jared Verse has been the best rookie pass rusher all year and likely wins this race, barring injury. However, there are two rookies with three interceptions on likely playoff teams that you can get at long odds.
I dropped Texans safety Calen Bullock in ETR’s betting Discord last week at +7500, where he was as low as +850 on DraftKings. Bullock is still +850 on DraftKings and still doable at +6000 on ESPNBET.
Steelers cornerback Beanie Bishop has three interceptions over the last two weeks for 6-2 Pittsburgh. Bishop is Pittsburgh’s nickel corner, so he could realistically see fewer snaps than Bullock and he generally needs to be targeted to have a chance at a splash play. However, Bishop’s interceptions have all come in primetime, against both New York teams, and each of them were impactful.
Both of these guys should be in the +1500 range given their situations, in a weak DROY class.
Awards Market Notes
T.J. Watt and Will Anderson Jr. are the two primary DPOY favorites and they are both in an excellent position. I think one of those guys likely wins, however, there are two longshots on my radar: 49ers linebacker Fred Warner has dipped to +3500 on DraftKings and Anderson’s teammate, Danielle Hunter, has dipped to +4000 on Caesar’s. If none of the contenders have good enough sack production to become a slam-dunk winner, Warner has a shot. Anderson and Hunter form the league’s most dangerous edge duo, so it would be no surprise if either of them surged in the second half.
The Comeback Player of the Year market is off the board as of this writing at a number of major platforms. However, Kirk Cousins has risen to the top and Damar Hamlin has gained some ground, while Aaron Rodgers has fallen off. Sam Darnold is now +10000 on FanDuel and ESPNBet in this market. Justin Herbert is available at +3500 on ESPNBet. I don’t think Herbert missed enough time last year to qualify, but that’s worth monitoring. Kyler Murray has surged towards the top of this race, which is curious because he played in the final eight games last year. Hamlin also played some last year, but I think his situation is so unique that he could still win this race this year.
Jayden Daniels is now well below even money and likely needs an injury to lose this race. That said, this race does have a handful of candidates with a path.
Coach of the Year Notes
Dan Quinn has moved to the front of the COY race, but he probably needs a number of candidates to fall off since Daniels will get most of the credit for Washington’s success. As I mentioned on our awards show, while Kevin O’Connell has done a nice job with the offense, Brian Flores’ defense has driven most of Minnesota’s success. Losing LT Christian Darrisaw for the season likely reduces Minnesota’s offensive future.
If the season ended today, as I said on our awards show, I think Sean Payton has done the most, with the least, aside from Flores, who is a coordinator. I do, however, have my doubts that Denver’s success continues. That’s also why I discussed Gannon and McVay above, because if O’Connell and Payton fall off, who benefits?
Generally speaking, coaches with quarterbacks like Justin Herbert don’t normally win this race unless they have a historic season. That said, the Chargers are a more stable team with Jim Harbaugh and they’ve enjoyed a very soft schedule.
Mike Tomlin’s Steelers made the playoffs last year, which may eliminate him, but it is a genuine joke that he’s never won this award. If Andy Reid, whose lone COY win exemplifies how broken this race is, goes undefeated, he likely wins this award.
MVP Notes
Josh Allen jumped ahead of Lamar Jackson in the MVP race this week after Baltimore’s loss. Allen’s Bills already have four more wins than any other AFC East team. No one wins the MVP through the first half of the season, but Allen has built a good foundation and also “deserves one”, which could influence voters.
A big issue for Jackson is that Henry is also a legit contender in this race, which I think hurts Jackson more than Henry. One reason for that stance is the last running back to win, Adrian Peterson, did so on a 10-6 Vikings team. The chances of Baltimore finishing the year as the AFC’s No. 1 seed are long, as the Chiefs technically have a four-game lead on the Ravens in that area.
Patrick Mahomes has fallen to third in this race, as his Chiefs are still undefeated despite Mahomes being off the pace production-wise.
Jared Goff is in a great position in some ways, as the Lions could finish the year as the NFC’s best team and he’s had some great performances. Unfortunately, Detroit has put up huge points, on multiple occasions, without needing much from their passing game.
You have to check in on his injury situation, but Jordan Love can be had at a value (+2000 to +3000 FanDuel, ESPNBET). He’s tied for third in touchdown passes despite missing two games, and he gets a huge opportunity against Detroit’s nonexistent pass defense. If the Packers win that game, they also go to the front of the NFC North.
C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy have laid good enough production foundations to surge in the second half, but they both need other teams to fall off in the team success area.
On our first awards show weeks ago, Mark Dankenbring mentioned Jalen Hurts’ advantageous schedule. Hurts was in the +3000 range at that time, and is now between +1500 to +2000, where I’d have him at the +1500 number if I were an oddsmaker. The Eagles are starting to roll, but Hurts and Saquon Barkley have a similar dynamic to Jackson and Henry, where they may cannibalize each other in the eyes of voters.
If you want an MVP longshot who’s laid a good enough production foundation where their team has a shot at the top seed in their conference, Kirk Cousins (+2800 to +4000 Caesars) is the guy.
Baker Mayfield leads the league in touchdown passes by a considerable margin, and you can get him at an absurd value (+3500 to +12000 FanDuel). On the surface, that looks like a wild mistake, but Mayfield is down his top two pass catchers and the chances of the Buccaneers finishing the year as the NFC’s top seed are low. I still wouldn’t have him as a deep longshot if I were an oddsmaker, but he has a narrow path to being the league’s MVP. However, Mayfield is available at +25000 in the Offensive Player of the Year race on Fanatics. We’ve been treating the OPOY race as the best skill player race the last few years, and we’ll continue to do so, but Drew Brees‘ 2008 OPOY win for the 8-8 Saints is the precedent for Mayfield here. I don’t think it happens with brand names like Henry, Barkley, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson at the top of this race, but Mayfield should not be available at 250-1 type odds as the league leader in touchdown passes.
