Dynasty Outlook
March 6
Rome Odunze is our WR3 for rookie drafts and checks in as WR18 in our overall dynasty ranks. This is a special case of a player who is expected to be selected highly in the draft despite playing a fourth year of college — and one that we find ourselves believing in. The commonality in scout comps to Larry Fitzgerald makes it seem more reasonable, and the statistical comps are positive regardless of if we credit him for his second-year near-breakout. Giving full credit makes it clear that Odunze will be a potential star, but even without that credit the list of comparable players is impressive overall. Odunze is clearly worth investing in for rookie drafts.
Profile Summary
Odunze is one of the three players considered to be in the top tier of WRs for this class. He has excellent speed for his size, with plus agility given his three-cone time. The scouts appear to be keen on comparing him to Larry Fitzgerald, which is high praise. We should expect to see Odunze selected somewhere in the top 10, which should beget him immediate opportunity. While the subset of players who have stayed in school for four years has a much lower success rate than three-year players, Odunze appears to be on the favorable side of his potential outcomes.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 21.6
Experience — 4 years
Height — 74.875 inches
Weight — 212 pounds
Hand — 9.25 inches
Arm — 32.25 inches
Forty — 4.45 seconds
Vert — 39 inches
Broad — 124 inches
Cone — 6.88 seconds
Shuttle — 4.03 seconds
By the Numbers
Odunze was a true freshman during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, with his Washington team completing just four contests. This team had an interesting collection of talent, including Cade Otton and Puka Nacua. He accounted for 18% of Washington’s receiving yards in those four contests, which is impressive, but he was not able to improve greatly in 2021 with Nacua gone. There is some evidence that QB play may have been responsible for this. Dylan Morris averaged just 6.8 yards per attempt, and had a 14:12 TD to INT ratio. With that said. Odunze’s TD increase that season has him mere decimals away from recording an official breakout.
With Michael Penix under center in 2022, Odunze enjoyed a major uptick in production. He crossed the 1,000-yard mark for the first time and scored seven touchdowns. He could have declared for the NFL Draft, but he decided to stay at Washington for one more year. It was worth it for Odunze, who posted a monster 92/1,640/13 line in 2023.
One of the more difficult parts of assessing Odunze from a statistical perspective is reconciling his staying for that fourth year in school. These are the four-year WR prospects to be drafted in the top 16 since 2005:
Braylon Edwards
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Justin Blackmon
Michael Floyd
Tavon Austin
Kevin White
DeVante Parker
Corey Coleman
Corey Davis
Mike Williams (Clemson)
John Ross
DeVonta Smith
Chris Olave
Jahan Dotson
Only Edwards, Blackmon, Smith, and Olave have been hits. 27% is a decent rate in a vacuum, but paltry compared to the 41% overall hit rate for first-rounders. We will have to do some real vetting to determine if Odunze is more likely to be an exception or follow the base rate.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compares Odunze to Larry Fitzgerald:
A team captain with good size and elite ball skills, Odunze consistently dominated his competition. While most receivers look to open separation windows with speed or route running, Odunze seems to relish jump balls and contested catches. He shines in all aspects of ball skills, including positioning, body control, hand strength, timing, and mid-air adjustments. He has a tendency to cruise through routes rather than working with attention to detail and pacing. He was a decorated high school sprinter, so speed should not be an issue in the pros. He’s a high-volume target on the next level that play-callers can utilize to mismatch finesse cornerbacks. Elite ball skills are often the secret sauce for top NFL receivers, so it should not surprise if Odunze is a Day 1 starter who becomes a top-flight WR1.
Daniel Jeremiah also mentions a Fitzgerald comp:
Odunze is a big, athletic wideout with exceptional hands. He can play outside or in the slot. He is refined and polished in everything he does on the field. He uses a variety of releases at the line of scrimmage and is a clean route runner. He uses his strength to lean into defenders before separating out of the break point. He thrives in traffic, possessing the ability to pluck the football and absorb big shots over the middle of the field. He makes some incredible adjustments on poorly-thrown balls. He tracks naturally over his shoulder. After the catch, he is very tough to bring down and has some nifty make-miss ability. He plays with a ton of passion and energy. Overall, Odunze is a complete player and reminds me of Larry Fitzgerald coming out of college.
Dane Brugler mentions that Odunze can win contested catches while also being a great athlete:
Odunze is field-fast with the fluid route running and above-average tracking/adjustment skills to secure catches in high-trafficked areas or create explosive plays downfield (32 catches of 20+ yards in 2023, second most in the FBS).
His body control at the catch point has always been a strength, but he took major strides with his ability to play through contact and use focused concentration to win 50/50 balls. Odunze has the pass-catching instincts and competitive focus to be a high-end NFL starter.
Draft Projection
Odunze has an expected draft position of 7.8 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Odunze sixth overall. Jeremiah’s most recent mock draft has Odunze going ninth overall, while Brugler’s has him going fifth. Odunze is a likely top-10 pick, but he is certainly expected to be off the board in the top 15.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
As I mentioned earlier, Odunze was decimal points away from a Year 2 breakout (0.0018). This poses an interesting question as to whether or not we should credit him for the breakout. I think it is likely valuable to consider both comp sets when trying to form our opinion of Odunze. As it stands, Justin Blackmon is the only WR to appear in both comp sets, which is notable since he was a hit.
The first thing that stands out when looking at both sets is how crazy the difference is by simply changing when Odunze broke out. The breakout comps are littered with studs: Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, Allen Robinson, Drake London, Braylon Edwards, D.J. Moore, Greg Jennings, and DeAndre Hopkins. Only Derek Hagan was a bust.
While the non-breakout comps aren’t bad, the list is clearly not as good. Brandon Aiyuk, Rashee Rice, Jordy Nelson, and Eric Decker are the positive comps, while we see Anthony Miller, Robert Meachem, Zay Jones, Taywan Taylor, and Kevin White on the negative side. Still, a true 50/50 shot for this archetype of player (no breakout until Year 4) would be considered quite bullish. That has me leaving this exercise feeling optimistic.
