Patrick Mahomes’ injury changed this slate, as a few days ago, two strong options would have roughly split ownership this week, and now we only have one.
For most of the year, I ground my ownership projections against Circa’s main tournament, but once we get to a point where there are only a few entries left in Circa, I do a broader ownership projection. Given that, I will expand on ownership talk for several teams in their individual game write-ups.
Below, I’ll discuss multiple games, listed from highest projected ownership to least for teams with at least 1% projected ownership. As always, I will check in via the survivor pool channel in Discord to discuss any updates I have on any matchup. If you have any questions, get them into Discord by midnight ET on Saturday.
Texans vs. Raiders
Spread: -14.5
Total: 37.5
Ownership: 44%
Expect close to every entry that still has the Texans available to play them.
Houston has now won six in a row and seven of their last eight. Most of that success has been driven by their high-end defense, which is led by their top-of-the-food-chain pass rush. This week, the Texans’ front faces a Raiders offensive line that has been atrocious this season, in what might be the biggest line-play advantage any team has had all year. From a pure football angle, I have no issue playing the Texans here.
Houston will have a line-play advantage next week against the Chargers, but I have no real interest in leaning into either side of that matchup in survivor given the quarterbacks involved. Their matchup with Indianapolis in the regular-season finale has more appeal now than it did a few weeks ago, but I’d rather not mess with that, either.
If I had Houston, I’d play them. The only team on this slate I’d consider leaning into game theory with is Buffalo if I had both teams. Even then, I think I’d rather play the Texans, as the Raiders’ path to victory is simply very narrow.
In a tournament like Circa, where only 30% of the field has Houston available, that would be a non-decision for me unless there are late-week injury developments.
Remaining Matchups: at LAC, vs. IND
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