The Beatdown: UFC 299

​​Note: Please read the full analysis; that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

 

Main Card: Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera | Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis | Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page | Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena | Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong

 

Under Card: Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida | Katlyn Cerminara vs. Maycee Barber | Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael Dos Anjos | Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips | Ion Cutelaba vs. Philipe Lins | Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk | Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian | CJ Vergara vs. Asu Almabayev | Joanne Wood vs. Maryna Moroz

 

 

MAIN CARD

 

Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera

 

Fight Odds: O’Malley -272, Vera +224

Odds to Finish: +100

DraftKings Salaries: O’Malley $9.2K, Vera $7K

Weight Class: 135

 

The Suga Show is officially back in town, as budding superstar Sean O’Malley takes center stage to defend his newly earned bantamweight belt against the last man who beat him in Marlon “Chito” Vera.

It’s been an astonishing rise to the top for O’Malley, who first made headlines on Dana White’s Contender Series, the feeder program that’s brought many unique talents into the UFC.

O’Malley earned his contract as a wide-eyed, skinny-framed, 22 year old whose skills within the Octagon were clearly outpaced by his skills on the microphone. But he got his opportunity and made good use of it, and even got the attention of Snoop Dogg, where the two famously shared a smoke after his win.

With attention like that, you can imagine how many fighters, fans, and members of the MMA media have wanted to knock O’Malley down a peg. However, O’Malley has continually proven his worth, and has passed the majority of obstacles he’s faced, which most recently included the former champion Aljamain Sterling.

I didn’t think O’Malley would win that fight, and in all honesty, I would consider picking Sterling again if those two fought because Sterling is a superior grappler and a more well-rounded fighter.

And moving forward, I don’t necessarily expect O’Malley to retain the championship for a long period of time. Although he’s a talented kid, there are a lot of killers in this division and I’m not sure anyone gets past Merab Dvalishvili when he eventually gets his crack at the belt.

Despite this, I have actually been higher than the market on the majority of O’Malley’s matchups because there are a lot of skills in his arsenal that I do really respect and consider valuable in the fight game.

The main one being his ability to punch other dudes in the head, while avoiding getting hit in the head in return.

O’Malley currently lands 7.25 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.51 per minute with a 61% defensive rate, which are strong metrics overall. More impressively, opponents are only landing significant strikes to his head at 24%, meaning O’Malley is avoiding the vast majority of attempts.

You can argue that this is one of the very most important metrics in all of MMA because judges value damage and damage is predominantly scored via head strikes.

And even as a power striker, O’Malley has proven far more successful than most fans expected. He’s fought in the UFC 11 times, and of his nine victories, six have come by knockout, including three in the first round.

He’s a tall, long fighter with efficient boxing and distance management, and he will continue to have knockout equity against the majority of the division.

That’s why in any given striking matchup, I think O’Malley is likely to have success. Of course there are fighters who carry even more power, and there are fighters with more experience, and potentially ones with better durability.

But as far as a per-minute striker, O’Malley attempts and lands a lot of punches and kicks, and he rarely gets hit in the head in return. That is going to give him a very high floor in any striking-based matchup and I expect he’ll continue to compete or have the advantage in most striking rounds.

The problems and questions with O’Malley have come in two areas. The first area is in the wrestling and grappling realm, which I don’t expect to be super impactful for this particular matchup.

O’Malley hasn’t faced many elite wrestlers, but his body type and background, and recent exchanges against Petr Yan, suggest he’ll probably continue to give up takedowns to the best fighters in this division, which he’s now forced to face. To his credit, he did just defend two initial attempts against Sterling, so perhaps he is improving in this area.

He’s also a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, so his knowledge of the submission game is pretty strong, and it should keep him alive if he ends up on his back occasionally.

The bigger issue we’ve seen in his career is his durability, and more specifically, his body durability, which is not something that’s talked about often with other fighters.

O’Malley badly hurt his leg in a fight against Andre Soukhamthath in 2018, to the point in which he could not even stand. Somehow, Soukhamthath didn’t realize it and let O’Malley escape with a win in that matchup.

Only three fights later, O’Malley fought Chito Vera, and again hurt his leg early in the fight. Vera did realize it, swarmed him, and landed some heavy shots on the ground after O’Malley stumbled to his back. The fight was immediately stopped after those shots, which happened late in the first round. And that’s the last time O’Malley lost.

You can make the argument that these occurrences were extremely random and unlucky. Or, you can make the argument that because O’Malley has skinny legs and uses them to kick, perhaps he’s more vulnerable to hurt them than other fighters.

He’s also very rarely been hit to the head with impactful shots, as noted earlier, so I can’t say I’m convinced in his ability to withstand head damage if he takes a lot of it. Petr Yan did knock him down in 2022 and O’Malley recovered well, but he was hurt.

This is important to note because now that O’Malley is in a rematch with Vera, I do expect his durability to be tested.

For those unfamiliar, Vera is not a per-minute specialist and he and I have had a long, long history of conflict. Of course he doesn’t know that I exist, so this conflict only takes place in my head. But I have picked against him in almost every single fight in his career, and I’ve been made the fool many times.

The primary reason why I have always considered Vera to be overrated is because he consistently gets hit a lot more often than he’s able to hit his opponents. He currently lands 4.37 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.16 per minute, with a 51% defensive rate.

At distance, Vera is landing 5.0 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 6.2 per minute, in a large, 22-fight sample. Opponents are landing strikes to his head at a 40% clip.

None of these metrics are good. As a primary striker, you don’t want to get hit more often than you can hit your opponent. This just seems obvious.

Even worse, Vera is a terribly slow starter and he’s lost the first round in so many of his matchups, including ones against a very low caliber of competition. The majority of his victories are comebacks.

A third-round knockout, a second-round submission, a second-round knockout, another third-round knockout, and a fourth-round knockout are just some of the victories Vera has earned in the UFC, and although I give him credit for them, I tend to find them unsustainable in the long run, especially given the metrics I’ve already shared.

The issue, I suppose, is that Vera seems to have historically strong cardio and durability. He never gets tired, and he never gets hurt. He’s never been finished in 32 pro fights, which is nearly unheard of.

Somehow, Vera has won enough times that he’s now able to compete in main events, which are five rounds instead of the usual three. And this just makes his game that much better.

It means he can still lose that first round, and have 20 minutes left to work. He can lose the first three rounds for all he cares, and still find a way to batter his opponent down the stretch and secure the comeback.

I’m not trying to say Vera is incompetent. He’s a fine striker, who can box and who can kick, and he’s damaging from the clinch. He’s a strong submission grappler himself.

But he’s never been a strong round winner because he gets hit very often in return, and he only averages 0.58 takedowns per 15 minutes, so his submission grappling rarely comes into play either.

That’s why I am forced to pick against him once more, and side with O’Malley to retain his belt.

O’Malley has far superior distance metrics, and he should have a clear advantage in head-strike volume. He is the more likely fighter to start well, and carry that success into the early rounds.

If Vera had the ability to mix it up and take him down, I would be more concerned, but Vera rarely wrestles. If for some reason he does land a takedown, I’m still confident O’Malley can defend himself and scramble up to his feet, unless he’s hurt prior to the ground exchanges.

I even think O’Malley might have a chance at takedowns, because Vera defends at 70% and can be held down at times. Mostly, I expect these two to neutralize each other on the mat and the vast majority of this fight should take place on the feet.

It will really come down to whether Vera is once again able to mount a comeback. He may not fire off a lot of strikes early on, but over 25 minutes, he will likely increase his pace as the fight progresses.

And yeah, when O’Malley is avoiding strikes, he looks great. What happens if Vera can catch him though? What happens if Vera attacks his legs like we saw in the first fight, and can accrue damage there over 15-25 minutes?

I am not completely convinced that O’Malley won’t get hurt or injured, whether it’s against Vera or a future opponent. There’s plenty of variance in striking exchanges anyway, so a random punch or kick will always have the ability to change the momentum.

And Vera will likely be there in front of him, no matter what round or the amount of strikes he’s eaten. His cardio and durability seem nearly unmatched, and that will always give him a chance to win and come from behind.

I’ll take O’Malley to keep his distance, and cautiously out-strike Vera over five rounds to retain the belt, but make no mistake, this is a test that O’Malley hasn’t yet proven he can pass.

—

On DraftKings, this main event, as with all five-round fights, will be a popular matchup to target.

O’Malley is priced up to $9.2K and should carry a strong floor and ceiling in a victory, though I am not certain this is the best matchup for him to reach that ceiling, and I am a bit worried about him being over-owned on a public slate.

He won’t carry much, if any, wrestling equity in this matchup, which is a major issue for me. As is the fact that Vera has never been finished. O’Malley holds a fine ITD (inside the distance) line of +225, but it’s hard for me to believe he can legitimately finish Vera 30 or more times out of 100, considering Vera’s history.

I think there is a very real chance we see an extended fight here, which is backed up by the Over 4.5 rounds prop set at -160, and that will mean O’Malley may be dependent on landing a super high volume of significant strikes.

He can accomplish that goal, and he’s topped out at 230 strikes in 15 minutes before, but that’s an unrealistic pace. Projecting him to land his average of 7.25 significant strikes per minute would equate to 181 total strikes, which would put him on pace to score 102 DraftKings points.

At $9.2K, 102 points is decent, but it’s still not a guarantee to contend for the optimal lineup. And it wouldn’t be shocking to see him only land 150 significant strikes in 25 minutes, as opposed to 181.

I am simply nervous that O’Malley lacks finishing equity, and wrestling equity, and coupled with a potentially high public ownership, at a high price tag, there are several ways for him to fail.

The counterargument is that his floor is still pretty strong, and he should throw strikes at a decent pace for 25 minutes. Scoring 90-100 points may not put him in the winning lineup, but it wouldn’t crush your lineup either.

This top range lacks the strength I would like for me to get extremely excited about pivoting away from O’Malley, but I consider him more of a generally safe option, with upside, rather than a total smash play with an extremely high ceiling. I may end up with moderate exposure by default, but I will lean toward the underweight side in large fields, assuming he projects to be very popular.

Vera at $7K is one of a couple of cash-game punts you can consider, if you’d like to save salary, given that the fight should last a while. His floor will project better than most others in this range, and it’s fine to consider stacking him with O’Malley in cash games.

In tournaments, I prefer to look elsewhere, though there are still ways for Vera to win. He’s +300 to win ITD and a knockout victory would very likely have him competing for the optimal lineup.

If you’re playing with a large portfolio, Vera is a solid secondary target given this floor and ceiling combination, and the price savings. He may even carry a small amount of leverage against a higher-owned O’Malley.

But, I think there are better matchups to target for underdogs, and there are so many competitively-lined fights on this card. Vera still carries a big name and he may draw public attention, and with his cheap price tag, he could end up more highly owned than he should be.

I prefer to prioritize a handful of options priced above Vera, who have better win equity and finishing equity, or to just take some chances on lower-owned, higher-risk options who could allow me to separate myself from the field.

You can mix in a little bit of Vera depending on the size of your portfolio, and the contest size, but I’d be cautious about matching or exceeding the field ownership.

 

Brett’s Fight Prediction: O’Malley by Decision (Confidence = Medium-Low)

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Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis

 

Fight Odds: Saint Denis -222, Poirier +187

Odds to Finish: -600

DraftKings Salaries: Saint Denis $8.9K, Poirier $7.3K

Weight Class: 155

 

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a fight here that is nearly guaranteed to bring the heat, as fan favorite and action fighter Dustin Poirier will take on the surging and extremely aggressive Benoit Saint Denis. I want to point out that this is a FIVE-round non-title fight as well.

Dustin Poirier is a fantastic attrition volume striker. Poirier lands a solid 5.49 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.30 in return. Poirier is a bit more hittable than I’d like, but he can absolutely wear down opponents and break them down in later rounds. He has solid boxing and power. He is also capable of low calf kicks, which he famously blasted Conor McGregor with.

I also consider Poirier durable. He has only been knocked out three times in 29 professional fights. He can be hurt, but given how many wars he has been in and what his style of fighting consists of, I consider him quite durable. He was just brutally knocked out in his last fight vs. Justin Gaethje though, which isn’t a great look going forward. I just don’t like when guys who are a bit older take damage.

My main issue with Poirier is his grappling, especially his defensive grappling. I know — he is a black belt and he has a pretty nasty guillotine choke. He also lands 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes and submitted Michael Chandler, so he is capable on the mat to a degree. 

However, I noticed before the Charles Oliveira fight that he basically has fought all strikers in his career, almost to an astonishing rate. You would think in 29 professional fights, he would have fought more grapplers.

Any time Poirier has fought grapplers, he honestly hasn’t looked good. He defends takedowns at an okay 63% rate. However, The Korean Zombie worked him on the mat early in Poirier’s career, Khabib worked him, and Eddie Alvarez had him in a dominant position.