Welcome to the Week 15 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.
We have emerged from the bye-week abyss and are again blessed with a 12-game main slate. It boasts a high-octane headliner that will play a pivotal role in fantasy decisions, as well as a gaggle of games with low projected point totals. A handful of which feature intriguing pace-based ceilings, as well. We’ll primarily focus on those matchups below, so let’s dive right in.
“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.
No-Brainer | Up In Pace | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes
No-Brainer
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions
You don’t need to be Ace Rothstein to project this potential Super Bowl preview to spew a mountain of fantasy goodness, as its 54-point total stands out from all other main-slate matchups like a third ear. Even the faint warning signals, like the Bills’ moderate pace (21st) or their games averaging the third-fewest combined plays (120.1), are muted by the matchup. Buffalo has played quickly in its last two indoor games when, not coincidentally, they were locked in a tight game script. That includes Sunday, when the Bills turned in the third-fastest Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE) and their game yielded the third-most non-overtime combined plays of Week 14.
Buffalo also has been throwing more than assumed. Ranked 11th on the full season in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE; -1.0%), and 17th during the past four weeks (-1.3%), the Bills’ early run heaviness — on top of Week 13’s snow game (-19.3%!) — has clouded the big picture. Their PROE since Week 6, without the 49ers slog, would rank behind only the Bengals on the full season.
Now the Bills face a Lions defense with the fifth-highest opponent neutral pass rate (59%) — and its injury report looks like a CVS receipt. It’s enough to de-emphasize Detroit’s fifth-best standing in points per play surrendered. More relevant is this matchup features offenses ranking first and second in points per play. That’s probably no surprise, considering their games rank fifth (Bills; 51.2) and sixth (Lions; 50.1) in average total points.
Detroit’s ground game will almost certainly test a Bills defense that’s been better against the run than the pass all season. If Buffalo holds up early, this matchup will really pop. The Lions rank third in POE over the last month (+1.1) and just turned in the second-fastest mark of Week 14 (+2.0). They have the second-highest full-game explosive play rate on the season (12.2%), and Bills matchups rank third during the last month (10.7%). With so many fantasy-viable options involved — and the Bills’ touch distribution continuing to widen — we can use every extra snap this gem can spit out.
Up In Pace
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns
While some Jameis Winston is not what the Kansas City offense is missing, it could be what Chiefs games need to become fun again. Kansas City has the pace, pass rate, and — despite recent eye-bleeding evidence — explosive talent to throw a fantasy fiesta. The Chiefs rank fifth in POE on the season and second fastest during the last month. We’ve seen Andy Reid dial up their highest neutral pass rates of the year (75% and 76%) in Kansas City’s most recent two games. The missing ingredients are chunk gains. The Chiefs rank 28th in explosive play rate on the season and, in Week 14, only the Bears had fewer than Kansas City’s two. Despite their fast-paced, pass-happy approach, it’s been the long, methodical possessions — the Chiefs are first by a mile in snaps per drive (7.0) — that have muted their games’ overall snap volume. Kansas City’s games rank 17th in combined plays, whereas they once regularly topped the league.
The cure for the Chiefs’ hangover might be some hair of the dawg pound. Only two teams are allowing 15+ yard gains at a higher rate than the Browns (12.8%). Cleveland’s contests feature the fifth-highest full-game explosive play rate during the past month. Those matchups average the third-most combined plays on the season (126.8) and more during the last four weeks (131.5). They are also the eighth-highest scoring during that stretch (51.5). The Browns pass at a top-10 rate during neutral situations, and Chiefs opponents throw at a top-10 clip. With Nick Chubb tragically moving like Netflix Mike Tyson, the Browns simply can’t run the ball and shouldn’t try too often against a Kansas City defense allowing the third-highest dropback EPA over the last six weeks. The Chiefs are nearly touchdown road favorites, so if Naughty Jameis shows up early, this matchup may not ignite. Yet, despite an uninspiring projected total, it packs the gunpowder for Kansas City to finally explode.
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
When you’re doing late-game Leon Lett callbacks, it’s a sign that Cowboys contests have become unthinkably depressing as their cratered season grinds on. But, hey — at least they’re still attractively voluminous for fantasy. Dallas’ matchups lead the league in average combined plays, and those games yielded even more snap volume over the past month. We can thank the Cowboys’ moderating, but apparently unwavering, commitment to playing fast — as they still rank second in POE. The heavy throwing has also mellowed, as Rico Dowdle has emerged in Dak Prescott’s absence. Yet, the Cowboys still rank sixth in neutral pass rate over the past month and have a positive PROE during that stretch. The Dallas defense, despite a strong pass rush, is trash. They’re allowing the fourth-most yards per play and lead the league in points per play allowed.
Just behind the Cowboys in surrendering per-snap scoring sit the Panthers. Carolina allows the sixth-most yards per play and no one is giving up a higher offensive success rate during the past six weeks — despite the team generally waging more competitive games. With a 2.5-point spread, this matchup also projects to be close — potentially introducing some of that sweet, sweet back-and-forth game-speeding action. The Panthers are not a fast offense, but it has not been an anchor over the last four weeks, ranking 16th in POE. During that stretch, only Broncos games produce more combined offensive snaps. Chuba Hubbard remains a force, yet one with no viable backup. We may see Carolina lean a bit harder on their late-blossoming first-round passer here. With both Cowboys contests and Panthers games ranking top 10 in combined scoring, we have some quiet offensive upside masked by a meager 43-point projected total.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
A matchup pitting a pair of teams coming off their late byes, the bet is on the favorite to set the pace. The Broncos (-3.5) are 12th in POE on the season and 10th over the last month. During that span, they are fifth in no-huddle rate relative to expectation, as Bo Nix continues to perform better while using tempo. Denver’s games rank fifth in average combined snaps on the season (126.3) and have shot up to first during the past month (133.3). Those contests have also produced the fourth-most total points (55) and second-highest full-game explosive play rate over the last four weeks (13%).
While the Broncos are passing at a top-10 rate during neutral situations — both on the season and over the past month — the Colts are shackled to the ground. Their mobile quarterback has exacerbated Indianapolis’ league-lapping neutral run rate during the past four weeks (59%), and it’s showing up in the play volume. Colts contests rank 28th in combined snaps over the last month (121) after ranking second until that point. A couple of low-volume results can weigh on a small sample — and games with the plodding Jets and moderately-paced Patriots sandwiched the Lions choking out the Colts. It’s fair to question this matchup’s ceiling — Denver’s defense is formidable and Indianapolis’ offensive line injuries are a concern — but it has more play-volume juice than the skimpy 44-point total suggests.
Slow-Paced Slogs
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles
This is a prime example of a matchup between consistently fast-paced offenses that is likely to underwhelm in play volume anyway. The Steelers are sixth in POE on the season and fifth fastest over the last month. Their no-huddle rate ranks fifth overall and third during the past four weeks. While a few matchups have spiked, Pittsburgh’s games struggle to produce outsized play counts when they’re not pushed. Those contests rank 16th on the season in combined snaps, and they’re just 24th in total points (43.2). Steelers opponents score the sixth-fewest points on a per-play basis, and only average the 29th-most snaps per game. Not a sexy combo. Pittsburgh remains committed to the ground, ranking 27th in PROE, and will be without No. 1 space cadet George Pickens for the second straight game. In his absence last week, the Steelers generated only five 15+ yard gains, and they rank bottom 10 in full-game explosive play rate.
Eagles games feature the sixth-lowest full-game explosive play rate, mainly due to a defense allowing chunk gains at the second-lowest frequency. Philadelphia surrenders the league’s fewest yards and fourth-fewest points on a per-play basis. On offense, the Eagles’ run obsession makes Steelers OC Arthur Smith’s pants tight. No one is close to Philadelphia’s -9.1% PROE on the season, and it’s grown even more extreme during the past month (-12.7%). While A.J. Brown is on the cover of this week’s Squeaky Wheel Aficionado, expecting a dramatic reversal in Philadelphia’s run-pass approach is wishful thinking. Without such a shift, it won’t matter that the Eagles are fourth in POE during the past month. Play volume in their games will be underwhelming relative to how fast they operate until someone beats the passing back into the game plan. A Pickens-less Russell Wilson offense is a dubious candidate for the job.
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals
Despite showing sporadic signs of improvement, the Patriots exit their late-season bye ranked 30th in both points and yards on a per-play basis. Just 25th in rushing success rate over the past month, and with their rookie quarterback a lone offensive bright spot, New England still deploys the 25th-lowest neutral pass rate. It’s understandable, considering their arguable league-worst pass protection. At least the Patriots haven’t been a plodding offense behind Drake Maye, as their -0.5 POE over the past month would rank 15th on the full season. Still, in the absence of chunk gains on both sides of the ball — Patriots contests have the league’s lowest full-game explosive play rate (8.6%) — a moderate pace alone cannot infuse their matchups with snap volume.
Like New England, Arizona’s games are bottom 10 in combined plays. Also like the Patriots, the Cardinals are not allowing chunk gains — ranking 26th in defensive explosive play rate during the last four weeks (9.1%). While there has been more of a passing tilt during that recent stretch, with Arizona ranking fifth in neutral pass rate and their opponents eighth, it hasn’t translated into play volume or scoring. Especially scoring. At 38.3 total points per game during the past month, Cardinals contests rank 30th. As a near-touchdown home favorite against a defense yielding the third-highest rushing success rate during the past four weeks, this is a perfect spot for Arizona to return to the neutral run rate that had them ranked fourth (52%) before exiting a Week 11 bye with three straight pass-leaning losses.
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
We are not running away, screaming, from this matchup. We just need to be mindful it will likely lack in play volume. No defense is more favorable to fantasy quarterbacks, and the Jaguars are near the top in points surrendered to running backs and receivers, as well. The Jets’ offense is in a prime spot, but one they will stroll through at Aaron Rodgers’ preferred leisurely pace. New York ranks last in POE and their games yield the sixth-fewest combined plays. Even in a fun overtime matchup with the Dolphins on Sunday, the Jets operated at the fifth-slowest pace and play volume underwhelmed through four quarters. While New York’s games rank 28th in explosive play rate, at least their passing game is condensed — mostly shielding Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson from the opportunity-withering effect of low play volume.
After a blip of accelerated pace during Trevor Lawrence’s brief Week 13 return, the Jaguars slowed back down on Sunday. They registered a -1.4 POE, which would rank 24th on the season and one slot below their full-year standing. Also just 16th in PROE (-3.2%) — and lower during McCorkle Jones’ recent four-week run (-5.0%) — we’re looking at a slower-paced, run-leaning offense with a quarterback who has completed zero of his 13 attempts of 20+ yards. It should not be a surprise that Jacksonville is bottom 10 in explosive play rate during the past month, and their games produce a bottom-10 combined-plays average. While the most fantasy-friendly thing about this matchup is the Jaguars’ defense, be sure not to bite off more than the game’s play volume can chew.
Pace Notes
– If you’ve been disappointed in the play volume from Seahawks games of late — they’ve fallen to 29th in combined snaps over the last month after ranking sixth coming out of a Week 10 bye — just wait until they host the Packers. Green Bay ranks 24th in POE and 26th in combined snaps. Over the last month, the Packers have the fourth-slowest offense, and they were second slowest in Week 14. Deploying the second-lowest PROE is not helping on the play-volume front, either. Just ask Jayden Reed’s Ramen-filled fantasy investors.
The Seahawks have not been as ground committed, but they’re not chucking the ball around nearly as often of late. Over the last month, Seattle ranks a middling 15th in PROE, and they’ve plummeted to seventh slowest in POE. Add on a fast-improving defense that over the last month has allowed the second-fewest EPA per play, fifth-lowest dropback success rate, and the league’s lowest explosive play rate. Sunday night’s matchup may struggle to generate fantasy juice from a volume angle despite its solid projected total.
– The Giants randomly decided to play quickly on Sunday, unleashing the sixth-fastest POE of the week and turning in the second-highest no-huddle rate. They were the 25th-fastest offense before Week 14. Brian Daboll was somehow inspired enough by the Drew Lock Experience to edge their PROE up to nearly neutral, and one result was an out-of-left-field 140 combined plays. It was the third-highest non-overtime total in any game this season — and over 15 more snaps than the average Giants game.
A lot of nothing is still nothing, but that kind of play volume is notable nonetheless. Of course, pushing the pace versus the battered Saints last week is far different than trying it against the Ravens this Sunday — especially since Daboll was rewarded with 11 points and 4.6 passing yards per attempt. Either way, it’s fun to see New York’s coach is still flinging Lock against the wall to see if he sticks. If it’s the fast pace that holds, play volume could elevate for Giants opponents — who currently average the 10th-fewest offensive snaps.
– The Bucs turned in their first positive PROE in over a month on Sunday (+2.7%), ranking seventh on the week. Interestingly, they also operated at a moderate pace after playing slowly — often significantly so — since losing Chris Godwin. Tampa’s OC Liam Coen recently alluded to an intention to play with more pace, but lineup upheaval has prevented it. Now, emerging from the Godwin and Mike Evans injury unrest, Tampa’s receiver snaps have been consolidating on Evans, Sterling Shepard, and Jalen McMillan the past two games. It will be worth watching if the Bucs’ pace ticks up along with the snap count of their newly formed pass-catching corps.
