Welcome to the Week 16 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which matchups will – and which will not – be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.
Saturday Slate
The NFL has gifted us the perfect remedy for a Christmas hangover by scheduling what should be a point-filled three-game slate on Saturday. All three matchups feature an offense that is top 10 in 20-plus-yard plays per game over the last six weeks (Buccaneers, 49ers, and Raiders), against a defense that is top 10 in giving up those pace-juicing plays during the same time frame.
We need to be ready to rock early, as the day’s projected totals get progressively lower. The play-volume expectation follows suit, with two up-tempo teams kicking things off, followed by an up- and a down-paced team in the afternoon window, before wrapping up with a pair of plodding offenses to usher us off to bed. Then we’ll wake and do it all again on Sunday. Happy holidays, indeed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Fresh off of falconing the Falcons, the Bucs head back indoors for a mouthwatering matchup with the barely-there Lions defense. Tom Brady should be fully awake for the early game, in which Tampa Bay is nearly a double-digit favorite. Fortunately, the Bucs are the fifth-fastest offense while winning by seven or more points according to the RotoViz Pace App. Overall, Tampa Bay ranks second in snaps pace on a situation-neutral basis (game within seven points; first three quarters). On Sunday, the Bucs deployed the week’s highest situation-neutral pass rate, in part due to the absence of early-downs back Ronald Jones. He will miss Saturday’s game, but even if he was slated to play, Tampa Bay ranks second in situation-neutral pass rate on the season and fifth highest during the last month. Whether or not he’s fully clicked in the offense yet – and he’s up to fifth in PFF passing grade – this is a Brady-driven attack, and it’s helped buoy Tampa’s tempo.
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