Welcome to the first-ever Week 18 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.
We get 16 divisional rematches to close out the NFL’s longest season, and only three of them feature teams who cannot improve their outlook with a win. The other 13 matchups contain at least one side with something to theoretically gain. Of course, three of the most interesting games from a pace and play-volume perspective are off the main slate. Good times.
The final week typically hinges on motivation, either for individuals or entire teams. We also need to stay even more tethered to player news than usual. It will require grinding off several appendages right up to kickoff, so keep a close eye on ETR’s late-week content. We are undoubtedly in for a wild final week of this Covid-corrupted season, so let’s dive right in.
As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool.
Up In Pace
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Of course the Seahawks would tease us at the end of another maddening season. Over the last month, their contests average the seventh-most combined points (51.3), and on Sunday, Seattle actually ran more plays than their opponent for only the second time in 16 games. The Cardinals are a considerable step up from the Lions — despite Arizona dropping one to Detroit in Week 15 — so the script is likely to flip back. The Cardinals ran 30 more plays than the Seahawks in a Week 11 win that produced a respectable 128 combined snaps. Seattle has gone to the no-huddle at a 15% rate over the past month, and they are the second-fastest offense during the past four weeks on a situation-neutral basis. Better late than never.
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