Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 6

Up In Pace | Slow-Paced Slogs | No-Huddle Notes

Welcome to the Week 6 edition of Snaps & Pace — back-to-back winner of the FSWA’s Best Football Series — where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

Despite its considerable handicaps, Week 5 overdelivered. From Jerry Jones banging tables on Thursday, to a Bills banger with the Rams on Monday — even when the football did not rise to a quality level, the entertainment levels did.

As expected, slogs stuffed the 1:00 p.m. window — and while they did not ignite fantasyland, they were good for a few laughs. Thank you and goodnight, Dan Quinn. We did receive our fourth high-scoring result in five weeks (48.4-point average) on top of the most plays per game of the season thanks to three overtime contests.

Week 6 has a tough act to follow and features our smallest main slate yet thanks to four byes and further London tomfoolery. There is much to get to, so let’s dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Despite a mostly disappointing offensive showing at home against the Lions, the Cardinals hauled the garbage again. Trailing 31-7 halfway through the third quarter, Arizona tacked on over 200 yards and two touchdowns to deliver respectable fantasy days for Jacoby Brissett and Trey McBride. On the week, they snapped it with the eighth-most play-clock seconds during neutral situations, helping the game easily yield the most combined snaps of any non-overtime contest (136). The 66 total points also topped all four-quarter contests, as the Cardinals continue to participate in high-scoring matchups (54 total points per game; fifth). While the offense hasn’t been overly potent — it’s 23rd in points — Arizona has stayed on schedule with the 10th-highest success rate. The real star of this fantasy fiesta is the Cardinals’ defense. It has allowed the highest yards per attempt by a mile (9.1) and the most touchdowns through the air. Only the Cowboys have a worse PFF coverage grade. We’ll need that to persist with Carson Beck when Brissett is inevitably sent to the glue factory.

After their barnburner against the Bills, the Rams are up to 12th in scoring — which, while respectable, is disappointing. With the Cardinals giving up the most points per snap, it will behoove the Rams to infuse this game with play volume. Fortunately, Arizona’s contests rank seventh in combined snaps, and Rams matchups see the second most, largely thanks to a top-12 ranking in neutral pace metrics over the last month. Los Angeles eschewed tempo until late on Monday night against the Bills, but the Rams still rank fourth in no-huddle rate on the season. They also sit fifth in neutral pass rate, and opponents throw on them at the seventh-highest clip while games are close — aided by Los Angeles’ underwhelming 19% pressure rate (24th). While the Cardinals might not be as into pushing the pace as the Rams, at least at first, this matchup is a strong bet to yield outsized play volume. How else will Puka Nacua maintain that 15-target-per-game habit?

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders