Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Divisional Round

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for the Divisional Round. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

DL Rankings – Playoffs

1. 49ers
2. Chiefs
3. Packers
4. Ravens
5. Texans
6. Lions
7. Bills
8. Bucs

OL Rankings – Playoffs

1. Lions
2. Bucs
3. Texans
4. Chiefs
5. Ravens
6. 49ers
7. Bills
8. Packers

Biggest Divisional DL > OL Mismatches

1. 49ers DL (1st) > Packers OL (8th)
2. Chiefs DL (2nd) > Bills OL (7th)
3. Packers DL (3rd) > 49ers OL (6th)

Biggest Divisional OL > DL Mismatches

1. Lions OL (1st) > Bucs DL (8th)

DL > OL

1. 49ers DL > Packers OL

Key matchups: DT Javon Hargrave vs. LG Elgton Jenkins, DEs Chase Young & Nick Bosa vs. OTs Rasheed Walker & Zach Tom

Notes: The 49ers’ DL ranked 12th in pass-rush win rate, ninth in QB knockdown percentage, and 18th in pressure percentage (30th in blitz percentage). DT Arik Armstead is set to return to the lineup after being out since Week 14 with an injury. The Packers’ OL ranked second in pass-block win rate and 25th in QB hurries given up.

Green Bay’s play-action-heavy, run-first approach with QB Jordan Love’s ability to extend plays has been a winning recipe that helped neutralize the Cowboys’ vaunted pass rush over Wild Card Weekend. While this is a viable pathway for relative success against this 49ers defense as well, it is also contingent on a positive game script that allows their offense to avoid many obvious passing downs. Considering the 49ers’ offensive firepower and the Packers’ below-average defense, chances are San Francisco’s pass rush will have more opportunities to rush the passer with a lead than the Cowboys did last week.

As these one-on-one matchups present themselves, the 49ers’ front is well-equipped to capitalize on it with a few glaring mismatches in their favor. The first is the rotation of Chase Young and Nick Bosa against LT Rasheed Walker and RT Zach Tom. Walker is still green with hit-or-miss technique that skilled rushers like Young and especially Bosa can dominate against, while Tom’s middling anchoring ability will be put to the test against Bosa. Add in Arik Armstead being back for the first time since Week 14 to pair with Javon Hargrave, and this is by far the best pass-rushing front remaining in the playoffs. Look for Armstead’s matchup against the right guard rotation of Jon Runyan Jr. and Sean Rhyan to loom large in this game.

2. Chiefs DL > Bills OL