The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.
The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.
The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.
With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 13. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.
Week 13 Bye: None
DL Rankings – Week 13
- Texans
- Broncos
- Rams
- Browns – DE Alex Wright missed practice on Wednesday with a quad injury that kept him out last week.
- Eagles
- Seahawks
- Steelers
- Packers
- Vikings
- Lions
- Chiefs
- Jaguars – DE Travon Walker missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury that kept him out last week.
- Titans
- Cowboys
- Bills
- Cardinals
- Giants – DT Dexter Lawrence missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with an elbow injury.
- Patriots – DT Milton Williams went on short-term injured reserve after a Week 11 ankle injury.
- Ravens
- Dolphins
- Bucs
- 49ers
- Colts – DT DeForest Buckner is on short-term injured reserve until at least Week 14 with a neck injury.
- Raiders
- Falcons
- Jets
- Chargers
- Bears
- Saints
- Commanders
- Bengals – DE Trey Hendrickson remains out of practice due to injury.
- Panthers
OL Rankings – Week 13
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