Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 18

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 18. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 18 Bye Week: None

DL Rankings – Week 18

1. Cowboys
2. Steelers
3. Browns
4. Jets
5. 49ers – DT Arik Armstead suffered a knee injury four weeks ago against the Eagles that will likely keep him out for the fifth game in a row.
6. Chiefs
7. Eagles
8. Packers
9. Giants
10. Ravens
11. Jaguars
12. Colts
13. Titans – DT Jeffery Simmons is on short-term injured reserve with a knee injury.
14. Texans
15. Rams
16. Raiders
17. Chargers
18. Bengals
19. Panthers
20. Vikings
21. Lions
22. Bears
23. Bucs
24. Seahawks
25. Bills
26. Commanders
27. Dolphins
28. Broncos
29. Patriots
30. Saints
31. Falcons
32. Cardinals

OL Rankings – Week 18

1. Eagles
2. Lions
3. Chiefs
4. Bucs
5. 49ers
6. Cowboys
7. Ravens – Expect key starters to either not start or exit the game early due to the team having already clinched the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.
8. Colts
9. Bengals
10. Bills
11. Falcons
12. Texans
13. Browns
14. Rams
15. Packers
16. Broncos
17. Chargers – C Corey Linsley remains out with a “non-emergent heart-related issue” that has kept him out of the lineup since Week 3.
18. Vikings
19. Seahawks
20. Bears
21. Jaguars – LT Cam Robinson is on injured reserve with a knee injury.
22. Saints
23. Patriots
24. Cardinals
25. Dolphins – C Connor Williams is out for the year with a torn ACL.
26. Giants
27. Raiders
28. Commanders
29. Steelers
30. Panthers – RG Austin Corbett is out for the season with an MCL injury.
31. Jets
32. Titans – RG Daniel Brunskill practiced on Thursday after being limited on Wednesday with an ankle injury.

Biggest Week 18 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Cowboys DL (1st) > Commanders OL (28th)
2. Jaguars DL (11th) > Titans OL (32nd)
3. Ravens DL (10th) > Steelers OL (29th)
4. Eagles DL (7th) > Giants OL (26th)
5. Jets DL (4th) > Patriots OL (23rd)

Biggest Week 18 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Cowboys OL (6th) > Commanders DL (26th)

DL > OL

1. Cowboys DL > Commanders OL