Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 2

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 2. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 2 Bye Week: None

DL Rankings – Week 2

1. Steelers
2. Cowboys
3. 49ers
4. Browns
5. Giants
6. Packers
7. Eagles
8. Texans – DL Denico Autry is suspended for the first six games.
9. Chiefs
10. Raiders
11. Chargers
12. Colts
13. Jets – Haason Reddick has skipped the entire offseason and preseason holding out for a new contract that doesn’t have an estimated end date.
14. Titans
15. Seahawks
16. Bengals – DE Myles Murphy is on short-term injured reserve with a knee sprain that will keep him out for at least the first four weeks of the season.
17. Jaguars
18. Ravens
19. Bills
20. Commanders
21. Vikings
22. Rams
23. Lions
24. Broncos
25. Saints
26. Bucs
27. Patriots – DT Christian Barmore is out indefinitely with blood clots.
28. Dolphins – Bradley Chubb is on the PUP list and will miss at least the first four games of the season.
29. Falcons
30. Bears
31. Panthers – DT Derrick Brown is out for the season with a knee injury.
32. Cardinals

OL Rankings – Week 2

1. Lions
2. Eagles
3. Colts
4. Chargers
5. Chiefs
6. Jets
7. Texans
8. Cowboys
9. Bills
10. Vikings
11. Bucs – RT Luke Goedeke missed practice on Thursday with a concussion.
12. Falcons
13. Browns – LT Jedrick Wills returned to practice on Thursday after missing last week with an MCL injury.
14. Broncos
15. Steelers – LG Isaac Seumalo missed practice on Wednesday after missing Week 1.
16. Packers
17. 49ers
18. Jaguars
19. Ravens
20. Seahawks
21. Bengals
22. Rams – LT Joe Noteboom & LG Steve Avila are on short-term injured reserve. RG Kevin Dotson missed practice on Wednesday with a foot injury.
23. Bears
24. Raiders
25. Panthers
26. Cardinals
27. Giants
28. Saints
29. Titans
30. Dolphins
31. Patriots – LG Sidy Sow missed practice Wednesday after missing Week 1.
32. Commanders

Biggest Week 2 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Giants DL (5th) > Commanders OL (32nd)