The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.
The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.
The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.
With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 5. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.
Week 5 Bye Week: Browns, Seahawks, Bucs, and Chargers
DL Rankings – Week 5
- Cowboys
- 49ers
- Browns
- Eagles – DT Fletcher Cox was ruled out this week with a back injury.
- Titans
- Steelers – DT Cameron Heyward is on short-term injured reserve.
- Jets
- Chiefs
- Commanders
- Packers
- Giants
- Chargers
- Patriots
- Panthers
- Dolphins
- Colts – DT DeForest Buckner returned to practice on Thursday in limited fashion after missing Wednesday’s practice and last week’s game with a back injury. DE Kwity Paye missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a concussion.
- Bills
- Raiders
- Lions
- Falcons
- Rams
- Jaguars
- Vikings
- Bengals
- Ravens
- Texans
- Saints
- Cardinals
- Bucs
- Seahawks
- Broncos
- Bears
OL Rankings – Week 4
- Eagles
- Lions
- Chargers
- Cowboys – LT Tyron Smith is expected to return to game action this week after missing the last two weeks, which would mean the Cowboys’ original intended starting five would play their first game together of the season.
- Chiefs
- Browns – RT Jack Conklin is out for the year with a torn ACL.
- Packers – LT David Bakhtiari was placed on injured reserve. LG Elgton Jenkins returned to practice after missing the last two games with an injury.
- Ravens – LT Ronnie Stanley practiced both Wednesday and Thursday with it looking likely that he will make his return after missing the last three games with a knee injury.
- 49ers
- Saints – RG Cesar Ruiz returned to practice in full on Thursday after missing last week’s game with a concussion.
- Colts – LT Bernhard Raimann missed last week’s game with a concussion and didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday.
- Vikings – C Garrett Bradbury practiced Wednesday in a limited fashion after missing the last two games with a back injury.
- Bills
- Bucs
- Texans – LT Laremy Tunsil and RT Tytus Howard are on track to return this week.
- Patriots
- Dolphins – LT Terron Armstead suffered a knee injury in his first game of the season last week and is out for the foreseeable future.
- Falcons
- Bengals
- Jaguars
- Broncos
- Jets
- Cardinals
- Rams
- Panthers
- Raiders
- Seahawks – RT Abraham Lucas was placed on short-term injured reserve and LT Charles Cross is likely out this week with a toe injury.
- Titans – RT Nicolas Petit-Frere returned from suspension and practiced in full this week and LG Peter Skoronski returned in full after missing the last three games.
- Commanders
- Giants – LT Andrew Thomas and John Michael Schmitz missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday and are doubtful to play this week.
- Bears – LT Braxton Jones was placed on short-term injured reserve after injuring his neck in Week 2. LG Teven Jenkins should make his season debut this week.
- Steelers
Biggest Week 5 DL > OL Mismatches
- Eagles DL (4th) > Rams OL (24th)
- Jets DL (7th) > Broncos OL (21st)
- Packers DL (10th) > Raiders OL (26th)
- Dolphins DL (15th) > Giants OL (30th)
Biggest Week 5 OL > DL Mismatches
- Eagles OL (1st) > Rams DL (21st)
DL > OL
1. Eagles DL > Rams OL
Key matchups: Edge rusher Josh Sweat vs. LT Joe Noteboom, DT Jalen Carter vs. OGs Steve Avila & Kevin Dotson
Notes: The Eagles’ DL ranks eighth in pass-rush win rate, fifth in pressure percentage, and third in QB hurry percentage. The Rams’ OL ranks 28th in pass-block win rate, 32nd in sacks per pass attempt given up, and 22nd in QB hits given up. LT Alaric Jackson missed last week’s game and Wednesday’s practice with an injury while his backup (and starting right guard) Joe Noteboom missed Wednesday’s practice.
The Eagles’ defensive front will be without Fletcher Cox in this game which will increase the workload on Jordan Davis and Milton Williams, who should be able to combine to replace at least half of what Cox brings as a rusher. That combo should play well alongside rookie Jalen Carter, who is off to a dominant start. Haason Reddick has been off to a solid start as a pass rusher this year, albeit with a lower sack number than we’re accustomed to from him. Reddick was playing with a cast on his thumb from a surgery near the end of August to start the season, which came off last week. His speed and quickness will be a problem for giant RT Rob Havenstein while whoever plays left tackle (starter Alaric Jackson, backup Joe Noteboom, or whoever the third-string option is) will have their hands full against Josh Sweat.
With a dynamic interior pass rusher in Carter and a deep, talented edge-rusher group in place, the Eagles have advantages in virtually all isolated matchups in this game. It will be up to the rest of the Philadelphia defense to play off of that pressure up front against a high-flying Rams offense with WR Cooper Kupp returning to the fold for them to have success as a unit.
2. Jets DL > Broncos OL
Key matchups: DT Quinnen Williams vs. LG Ben Powers, Edge rushers Carl Lawson, Bryce Huff, and John Franklin-Myers vs. OTs Garett Bolles & Mike McGlinchey
Notes: The Jets’ DL ranks 12th in pass-rush win rate, ninth in pressure percentage, and fourth in QB knockdown percentage. The Broncos’ OL ranks 10th in pass-block win rate and 24th in pressure percentage given up and QB hits given up.
The Jets’ power-oriented defensive line is a bad matchup for a couple of Broncos starters, namely center Lloyd Cushenberry and RT Mike McGlinchey’s shaky anchoring ability that the likes of Quinnen Williams, John Franklin-Myers, and Michael Clemons will be able to take advantage of in isolated matchups. Edge rusher Bryce Huff is one of the most underrated rotational players in the league and is tied for the NFL lead in third-down pressures at 14 with Rashan Gary. Huff’s speed and burst off the edge will be an issue for right guard Quinn Meinerz on stunts and the unit also has Carl Lawson with a favorable matchup on the other side against LT Garett Bolles. There are too many opportunities for this Jets pass rush to win for this not to be a top mismatch of the week.
3. Packers DL > Raiders OL
Key matchups: Edge rusher Rashan Gary vs. RT Jermaine Eluemunor, DT Kenny Clark vs. OGs Dylan Parham & Greg Van Roten
Notes: The Packers’ DL ranks 15th in pass-rush win rate, eighth in pressure percentage, and fourth in QB hurry percentage. The Raiders’ OL ranks sixth in pass-block win rate, first in pressure percentage given up, and 19th in sacks per pass attempt given up.
The Raiders’ offensive line is surprisingly good in the above advanced metrics, but the film suggests those numbers are deceiving for a few reasons. First, the unit gave up 18 pressures and seven sacks last week alone (including six sacks to Khalil Mack). Next is the fact that prior to last week’s Chargers game, the unit gave up six pressures and two sacks to T.J. Watt. The main concern on film with this group is at the tackle positions, particularly right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor’s struggle to protect the corner against high-end speed off the edge, which Packers edge rusher Rashan Gary has, in addition to elite power. Gary also had a ridiculous 29.8 pressure percentage. Along with DT Kenny Clark’s power being a bad matchup for LG Dylan Parham, Green Bay is in prime position for a big day rushing the passer with two mismatches on each side of the Las Vegas line.
4. Dolphins DL > Giants OL
Key matchups: DT Zach Seiler vs. LG Mark Glowinski, Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips vs. RT Evan Neal
Notes: The Dolphins’ DL ranks 10th in pass-rush win rate, 12th in pressure percentage, and 10th in QB knockdown percentage. The Giants’ OL ranks 22nd in pass-block win rate, 29th in pressure percentage given up, and 32nd in sacks per pass attempt given up. LT Andrew Thomas, backup LG Shane Lemieux, and C John Michael Schmitz are likely out this week with injuries.
The Giants’ offensive line has progressively gotten worse as the year has gone on largely due to injuries, with their best player LT Andrew Thomas being out the last three weeks. Add in rookie starting center John Michael Schmitz leaving last week’s game with an injury that will likely keep him out this week, multiple injuries at the guard spots this season, second-year RT Evan Neal struggling to make a jump, and things have become untenable for this unit, forcing them to sign G Justin Pugh off the street this week.
With a slew of injuries and middling talent around the line (especially with Saquon Barkley injured), the solid Miami pass rush is in line for a spike in the pressure department starting with edge rusher Jaelan Phillips seemingly set to return after missing the last two games with an injury. Phillips will primarily face off against the struggling Neal while their stout interior duo of Zach Seiler and Christian Wilkins will see backups across the interior. Even Bradley Chubb on the opposite edge will face a backup, giving this Miami front every chance at having their best game of the season so far as pass rushers.
OL > DL
1. Eagles OL (1st) > Rams DL (21st)
The Rams’ pass rush revolves around DT Aaron Donald wreaking havoc, and the Eagles are in as good of a position as any line in the league at mitigating that while boasting the best right tackle in football in Lane Johnson and a solid left tackle in Jordan Mailata to handle the Rams’ average-at-best edge rushers. Another issue for L.A. pass rush in this game will be opportunity, or the lack thereof given their 24th-ranked run defense in yards per play given up (4.4) against the Eagles’ third-ranked rush offense (4.72 yards per rush). With few chances of pinning their ears back to get after the quarterback and a lack of resources outside of Donald to threaten the best offensive line in the league, things are lined up well for the Eagles to control the game up front this week.
