Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 7

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 7. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 7 Bye: Ravens and Bills

DL Rankings – Week 7

1. Texans
2. Broncos
3. Rams
4. Giants
5. Seahawks
6. Browns
7. Steelers
8. Lions
9. Vikings
10. Packers – DT Devonte Wyatt didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday due to a knee injury and appears doubtful to play this week. He hasn’t played since Week 4. Lukas Van Ness missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a foot injury.
11. Chiefs
12. Eagles – Edge rusher Nolan Smith was placed on short-term injured reserve, keeping him out until at least Week 8.
13. Colts
14. Jaguars
15. Bills
16. Jets
17. Patriots – DE Harold Landry missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury.
18. Bucs – DT Calijah Kancey is out for the year with a torn pec.
19. Titans – Edge rusher Arden Key missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a thigh injury.
20. Cardinals
21. Dolphins
22. Commanders
23. Raiders
24. Falcons
25. Chargers
26. Saints
27. Bears – DT Grady Jarrett missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury.
28. 49ers – DE Nick Bosa suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 3.
29. Bengals – DE Trey Hendrickson is expected to miss this week with a hip injury.
30. Cowboys
31. Ravens – DT Nnamdi Madubuike is out for the season with a neck injury.
32. Panthers

OL Rankings – Week 7

1. Eagles
2. Bills
3. Lions
4. Colts
5. Broncos – LG Ben Powers is on short-term injured reserve due to a biceps injury that is expected to keep him out until at least Week 10 or 11.
6. Commanders – RG Sam Cosmi is practicing and has a chance to play for the first time this season.
7. Chiefs – LT Josh Simmons is absent from the team due to an undisclosed reason with an unknown return date.
8. Rams
9. Bears
10. Steelers
11. Falcons
12. Patriots
13. Vikings – C Ryan Kelly (concussion) is on short-term injured reserve until at least Week 10.
14. Jets
15. Jaguars
16. Packers
17. Seahawks
18. Bucs – Luke Goedeke suffered a foot injury that landed him on short-term injured reserve until at least Week 7. RG Cody Mauch suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 2.
19. Panthers – RG Robert Hunt went down in Week 2 with a season-ending torn biceps injury.
20. 49ers
21. Cardinals
22. Saints
23. Ravens
24. Chargers – RT Trey Pipkins missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday after sitting out Week 6.
25. Cowboys – C Cooper Beebe suffered an ankle injury in Week 2 that will keep him out for 6-8 weeks.
26. Giants – C John Michael Schmitz missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a concussion.
27. Titans
28. Browns – LT Dawand Jones suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 3. The team traded for LT Cam Robinson.
29. Dolphins – RG James Daniels and RT Austin Jackson are eligible to return from short-term I.R. but are not expected to return this week.
30. Raiders – LT Kolton Miller was placed on short-term injured reserve after Week 4 and won’t return until at least Week 9.
31. Bengals
32. Texans