Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Wild Card

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Wild Card Weekend. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

DL Rankings – Playoffs

1. Cowboys
2. 49ers
3. Steelers
4. Browns
5. Chiefs
6. Eagles
7. Packers
8. Ravens
9. Texans
10. Lions
11. Rams
12. Bills
13. Bucs
14. Dolphins

OL Rankings – Playoffs

1. Eagles
2. Lions
3. Cowboys
4. Bucs
5. Texans
6. Chiefs
7. 49ers
8. Ravens
9. Bills
10. Rams
11. Packers
12. Browns
13. Dolphins
14. Steelers

Biggest Wild Card DL > OL Mismatches

1. Cowboys DL (1st) > Packers OL (11th)
2. Chiefs DL (5th) > Dolphins OL (13th)
3. Texans DL (9th) > Browns OL (14th)

Biggest Wild Card OL > DL Mismatches

1. Eagles OL (1st) > Bucs DL (13th)

DL > OL

1. Cowboys DL > Packers OL

Key matchups: Edge rushers Micah Parsons & DeMarcus Lawrence vs. OTs Rasheed Walker & Zach Tom, DT Osa Odighizuwa vs. C Josh Myers

Notes: The Cowboys’ DL ranks first in pass-rush win rate, 13th in QB knockdown percentage, and seventh in sacks per pass attempt. Micah Parsons finished first in True Pressure Score and fourth in True Sack Rate. The Packers’ OL ranks 14th in pass-block win rate, 25th in QB hits given up, and 28th in sacks per pass attempt given up.

The Packers are a well-schemed, balanced, and heavy play-action-oriented offense with a QB in Jordan Love elevating things around him. This has led to a middling pass-protecting offensive line from not being much of a hinderance, although that can change quickly against Micah Parsons and this ferocious Cowboys front. Parsons has been the most dominant pass rusher in football this season and will have his way against these tackles and even guards if reduced inside on most true drop-back pass downs, while DeMarcus Lawrence presents significant issues as well. Add in DT Osa Odighizuwa’s get-off, burst, and lateral quickness being an advantage over C Josh Myers, and the Cowboys have several matchups to capitalize on in this game. Green Bay needs to keep this game close, avoid obvious passing situations, and not play from too far behind to help mask their weaknesses in pass protection in this game.