Value Report: The Masters

Whew, we have made it to Masters week! Arguably the greatest four days of sports are ahead of us, and there are a plethora of ways to get action in for the best golf tournament of the year. Whether it’s an office pick ’em pool, a snake draft with buddies, or diving into a massive slate of prize pools from our friends at DraftKings, there is so much on the line at Augusta National. If you are a new subscriber, welcome aboard and let me tell you a little about myself! I have been a golf enthusiast, specifically on the statistical side, for the last decade plus, really focusing in on the niche tours of the world. The PGA Tour is of course always in the spotlight, but I’ve always had an infatuation of searching for stories on tours like the European (now known as the DP World Tour), the Korn Ferry Tour, or even the mini tours across the nation that so many talented players are grinding on waiting for their big break. Often, these players are small-sample-size guys on the high-tier professional ranks, so stats don’t always capture what their true upside may be, and I love to be able to find an opportunity early to roster these players before the public catches up. These spots come from Monday qualifiers, sponsor’s exemptions, order-of-merit opportunities most often, and I do my best to keep up with the global game to be ready to pounce when it presents itself. Now, The Masters is of course a different story, where it takes true prestige to get an invitation to the event, so the names aren’t nearly as off-the-board as say a Mexico Open. But the thesis remains the same in the sense that there is a group of players each week $7,500 and below that I believe have an edge at the event beyond what is projected, and my goal is to exploit that through the knowledge I have built up the past 10 years. Being on the right side of a breakout performance from one of these golfers gets us a low-owned ceiling that truly can break a slate, which is what we need to take down some of these massive guaranteed prize pools we have ahead of us this week!

Before we dive into the delicious Masters slate ahead of us, I always take time to look back through the selections from the previous tournament. Overall, the Valero Texas Open was quite a difficult tournament to get all six of your golfers through the cut, as less than 5% of lineups across contests accomplished the feat. Multiple high-end golfers, like tournament favorite Ludvig Aberg, reigning champion Akshay Bhatia, and Hideki Matsuyama, all failed to make the weekend, which put things in a tailspin for a majority of the contest. So having five of my seven selections get all four rounds in was a win in my book. Unfortunately, my flag plant, Isaiah Salinda, was one of the two casualties, and I put a heavy position into the rookie, who has had a phenomenal start to the year. The other one who failed to make the weekend was longshot Tim Widing, who I gave a spot on the Value Report for the second week in a row in poor fashion. He has such a high ceiling, but translating to the PGA Tour has been a real struggle for the Swede.