Tight end is an oft-forgotten about position in fantasy, but can definitely be a key to winning championships if you can secure one of the top scorers. Just eight of our top 100 dynasty players are TEs, but high-end commodities can return value year over year. Eight different TEs produced at least three top-six seasons at the position from 2012 to 2021. With that said, it can be tricky to pin down, and even in premium-scoring formats, it can be difficult to use draft capital on a position that sometimes takes years to really break out.
Here’s what you should be looking for in TE prospects, as well as some relevant information you can expect to see in our player profiles. One thing worth keeping in mind while reading is that, similar to quarterback, the sample sizes for TEs — both in terms of the number of prospects and number of successes — are small. These are data-based leans, but we should feel less confident in them than for WR or RB. We also likely want to pay more attention to what the scouts are saying as a result.
Draft Position
By now you should know the deal — draft position is an extremely valuable predictor of success at the NFL level. There were 31 unique top-six TEs in fantasy points per game from 2012 to 2021 (minimum eight games). 81% of them were selected in the first four rounds.
This relationship also exists at the prospect level. Using our database of TE prospects, we can see how often players find success as NFL players. If we consider a “hit” to be a TE who reaches 10 PPR points per game within three seasons, these are the hit rates by round.
Round 1 — 69%
Round 2 — 28%
Round 3 — 20%
Round 4 — 16%
Round 5 — 6%
Round 6 — 10%
Round 7 — 0%
UDFA — 1%
To simplify even further, players selected after Round 4 (or undrafted) hit just 3% of the time. First-round prospects have outstanding hit rates, but our focus should primarily be on the first four rounds of the NFL Draft (27% hit rate).
Age and Experience
The first thing that stands out when observing the age and experience data, is that very few TEs leave school early. There are only 19 age-20 TEs in our prospect database (dating back to 2005), and just 36 three-year players at the position. The focus here will be on experience since our sample sizes are larger. It can be observed in the hit rates that three-year players are an elite group when we can find them.
3 Years — 39% (46% in the first four rounds)
4 Years — 10% (22% in the first four rounds)
5+ Years — 7% (21% in the first four rounds)
There isn’t a huge disparity in performance depending on experience once a TE has returned for a fourth season. The three-year group is prodigious, but again, we should note a sample of just 36 players.
Athletic Testing and Production
Again, like QB, we don’t currently have a viable breakout metric for TEs. But there are a few different thresholds we’d like TE prospects to hit, and the results from them are fairly encouraging. The first is career-adjusted yards per play. You may recall from previous positions that adjusted yards per play is simply the number of yards a player gained per team offensive play, with a 2x multiplier on receiving. If we average a player’s results in each season, we get his career number. Here are the hit rates using our threshold.
1.1 career-adjusted yards per play or better — 30% (39% in the first four rounds)
Career-adjusted yards per play under 1.1 — 7% (19% in the first four rounds)
Another career metric that has promise is career market share of receiving yards. Market share of receiving yards is the percentage of team receiving yards that a player accounted for. Again, we just average the values from each season for the career mark.
Career market share of receiving yards 13% or better — 24% (34% in the first four rounds)
Career market share of receiving yards under 13% — 4% (17% in the first four rounds)
We want our TE prospects to be athletic for fantasy purposes. The ideal fantasy TE prospect is basically a glorified WR. The forty-yard dash provides us some quick and dirty insight into a player’s athleticism. Here we have a three-way split that proves useful.
4.6 or faster — 31% (50% in the first four rounds)
Between 4.6 and 4.75 — 15% (27% in the first four rounds)
Slower than 4.75 — 5% (13% in the first four rounds)
Note that the middle group is basically right on par with the overall sample average. They can be considered “fine” while numbers in either direction should be grabbing our attention more aggressively.
Statistics Glossary
You may see a variety of statistics referenced in our upcoming TE profiles. Here is the skinny on the most common ones you will see, along with abbreviations you may see for those stats.
Market Share of Receiving Yards (ms_rec_yd) — The percentage of team receiving yards a player accounts for. Only includes games in which he participated.
Market Share of Receiving TDs (ms_rec_td) — The percentage of team receiving TDs a player accounts for. Only includes games in which he participated. This statistic is useful in finding comparable TEs.
Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (rec_yd_pta) — The average number of receiving yards a player is responsible per team pass attempt. This is a nice way to account for both efficiency and volume. Only includes games in which he participated. This statistic is valuable in finding comparable TEs.
Adjusted Yards Per Play (adj_ypp) — Yards contributed by the player per play, with a 2x multiplier given to receiving. Only includes games in which he participated. This statistic is valuable in finding comparable TEs.
