XFL Top Plays: Week 8

 

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated, if necessary.

 

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 237 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

 

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

 

QUARTERBACK

Ben DiNucci (Seattle – $12,000) – There is no doubt that DiNucci still warrants consideration, especially considering Seattle is coming off of a week in which they dropped back on 73% of snaps. However, DiNucci’s price keeps rising even when his outputs are staying stagnant, right around the 20-point DK range. The floor is there, but at his price, you wish you could see more ceiling, perhaps leaning us away in GPPs. Still, DiNucci’s ceiling is there and he’s playing against D.C. in what has the highest O/U on the week at 47.

A.J. McCarron (St. Louis – $11,700) – McCarron presents a $300 discount on DiNucci, and, if anything, has been even safer of a cash-game play. McCarron has a 17:4 TD-to-INT ratio through four games and has yet to dip below 18.16 DraftKings points in any game this season. He’s coming off yet another three-touchdown performance.

Quinten Dormady (Orlando – $9,400) – What a journey it’s been for Dormady and the Guardians. First, he was “released” and then black-listed on his own team after coming back for supposedly leaking plays to another team. Fast forward one month, and Dormady has been reinserted as the starter and just put up one of the best box scores of the season in Week 7’s back-and-forth battle with D.C. The former Tennessee Volunteer reinvigorated Orlando’s offense, completing 27-of-34 attempts for 328 yards and three touchdowns. He added eight carries for 22 yards on the ground. Considering you get over a $2K discount on the two guys above, as well as some clean stacking options, Dormady finds himself firmly on the cash or tournament radar.

 

RUNNING BACK

Abram Smith (D.C. – $10,300) – Smith continues to have the best role of any RB in the XFL. The only problem is he is now priced up to be more expensive than every QB other than DiNucci and McCarron. He’s coming off another 100+ yard, one-touchdown performance and we have no issue paying up for his floor/ceiling combo.

Brian Hill (St. Louis – $9,700) – Hill is projecting as our best RB on the week, as he’s in an intriguing matchup with a D.C. team that could result in Hill’s pass-game role increasing as 7.5-point underdogs. Hill has a firm grasp on the lead-back role, out-snapping Mateo Durant 45 to 13 in Week 7.

Jacques Patrick (San Antonio – $6,800) – Patrick once again comes through as the cost-saving RB of the week, projecting as our top value at the position. Patrick played 76% of San Antonio’s Week 7 snaps, and the type of game script doesn’t impact Patrick, as he remains a staple of the passing game. He only carried the ball 12 times for 20 yards last week (numbers in themselves that should only increase), but he was also targeted seven times, catching four balls for 45 yards. 

 

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Hakeem Butler (St. Louis – $10,800) – Yes, Butler now has a 1B or partner in crime in Darrius Shepherd, but there is no doubt that Butler remains a force in this league and should be atop your cash-game consideration or stacking options with A.J. McCarron. 

Cody Latimer (Orlando – $8,400) – Orlando has looked like a new team over the past couple of weeks, especially last week with Quentin Dormady dropping back 34 times. While Latimer’s route participation may not be the highest on his own team, he earns a ton of targets and his production continues to be tops in the league.

Juwan Green (Seattle – $4,500) – It wouldn’t be a Top Plays article without discussing a Seattle pass catcher, but it might not be the one you think this week. Sitting at only $4,500, Green has settled in as a legit DFS option as the Sea Dragons’ No. 3 WR after Blake Jackson and Jahcour Pearson. He’s been earning targets, has three touchdowns on the season, and is part of perhaps the best game environment of the week.

T.J. Vasher (San Antonio – $3,400) – You may need some cost savings this week, and while the San Antonio aerial attack is certainly a scary proposition, Vasher is only $3,400. He played a whopping 60-of-62 snaps last week in a game script that called for a 75% pass rate.

 

DEFENSE

Houston Roughnecks ($4,400) 

Arlington Renegades ($4,700) 

 

THE SOLVER RULE SUGGESTIONS

Rule 1: At most two RB/WR/TE from same team

The scoring in the league is generally lower than we’re accustomed to, and it’s difficult to get more than two flex players in the optimal in large-field GPPs. We prefer maxing this to two in all cases.

 

Rule 2: At most 1 QB/DST from the same game

We don’t mind playing WRs, TEs, or even RBs against defenses, as defenses generally get to their upside via TDs. But for a QB to get to their upside, they need to score multiple TDs, which docks the upside of both defenses in the game. This is a good way to correlate your lineups more.