A potential Jonnu Smith-Steelers marriage has been rumored for weeks, and it finally came to fruition on Monday morning. Jonnu will reunite with Arthur Smith, who coached him in Tennessee and Atlanta, and pair up with Pat Freiermuth to form an imposing TE duo. Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane figure to benefit from decreased target competition in Miami. Let’s break down what this trade means from a fantasy standpoint.
JONNU SMITH
- In his last three seasons with Arthur Smith, Jonnu had 44 targets (2019), 65 targets (2020), and 70 targets (2022), though those were all before his career-best 111 targets and 884 yards last season in Miami, which likely proved league-wide his ability to handle a TE1 workload. In Pittsburgh, Smith will be paid $12 million, actually slightly less than Pat Freiermuth‘s $12.1 million average per year, but it’s meaningful that the Steelers went out and acquired Jonnu despite already rostering Freiermuth.
- Longtime Steelers beat Mark Kaboly has already reported that Pittsburgh views Smith as a versatile weapon capable of playing TE, slot WR, and fullback. Considering Pittsburgh’s WR2 is Calvin Austin III and their WR3 is Roman Wilson, one would think they do everything they can to get both Smith and Freiermuth on the field at the same time. With Darnell Washington still rostered as a capable blocker as well, the Steelers may lead the league in 2-TE and 3-TE sets. There’s plenty of room for both Smith and Freiermuth to occupy significant roles.
- The Arthur/Jonnu Falcons led the league with a 34.3% target share to TEs in 2023. Smith’s Falcons threw to TEs 26.1% of the time in 2022 and 28.5% in 2021, and his Titans offenses were near the top of the league in TE targets, too. We’re basically expecting Smith to be the second pass catcher here with Freiermuth as the third target (among WR/TEs, at least).
- With that being said, this is still a big downgrade for Smith. He just posted a 19.1% target share on a much pass-happier offense than the one he’ll been a part of in PIT, plus the passing offense as a whole will likely be more efficient in Miami. We dropped Smith about five rounds projection-wise.
PAT FREIERMUTH
- We’re projecting Smith ahead of Freiermuth in target share but have both ahead of WR2 Calvin Austin III. As mentioned above, Arthur Smith loves getting his TEs involved, and 12 personnel will likely be the Steelers’ base formation in 2025. Freiermuth had a 15.8% target share in 2024, including 20.0% over his final four games. With George Pickens gone, he had a pretty large target ceiling before this trade, but sharing targets with Smith is pretty harmful to his fantasy value overall. Freiermuth dropped a little less than two rounds in our rankings.
OTHER STEELERS PLAYERS
- This is pretty brutal for Austin, Wilson, and Robert Woods. Pittsburgh had been transparent that Austin was viewed as the WR2 internally, so he’s hurt the most simply with the increased target competition, but PIT likely playing tons of 2- and 3-TE sets dampens the playing time of all non-DK Metcalf WRs.
DOLPHINS PLAYERS
- John Daigle noted that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were on the field for 111 plays together without Jonnu Smith last year, via SIS; Hill had a 30% target share on those plays, Waddle 25%, and De’Von Achane was at 22%. That’s a very limited sample, but Smith’s 19.1% target share in 2024 undoubtedly played a big role in why Hill’s target share dropped from 31.2% in 2023 to 20.8% last year and why Waddle’s went from 21.4% to 15.7%. Hill is now 31 years old and, given his play style and dependence on speed, it’s fair to question how much he has left in the tank. However, if he is still the same player, he once again has top-tier WR1 upside with Smith out of the picture. Justin Herzig pointed out that Hill still ran a 10.15-second 100-meter sprint this offseason, and the Dolphins’ offense never really had a chance once Tua Tagovailoa went down last season. Betting on Hill, especially with how his relationship with Miami seemingly deteriorated at the end of last season before magically repairing itself in the offseason, is a gamble, but it has league-winning upside if everything stays together.
- Waddle had a similar drop in target volume last year with Smith commanding a high-teens share, and his departure should pave the way for Waddle to jump back up in the pecking order. Waddle also has interesting contingent upside if the Hill situation goes south.
- Stylistically, there’s a fair argument that Smith’s exit helps Achane the most. Smith’s average depth of target was just 5.0 yards last year and he was frequently involved in the screen game, targets that could go Achane’s way now. Achane quietly had 89 targets in 17 games last season, and if Mike McDaniel chooses to continue the more gimmicky passing offense they deployed in 2024, Achane would be a major beneficiary.
- NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero was quick to report that the Dolphins are now looking for a TE. With Julian Hill currently atop the depth chart and Pharaoh Brown and Tanner Conner behind him, that makes sense. Miami was last in football with a 9.5% (staggeringly low) TE target share in 2023 and last again with a slightly more reasonable 13.3% mark in 2022. If they’re unable to trade for another TE, they could legitimately flirt with a single-digit TE target share again, given the lack of options they currently have at the position. If they get someone like Michael Mayer or Cole Kmet, that player could be a real weapon in the passing game for them. For now, we wait and see.
- Malik Washington and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine will duke it out for WR3 duties. They’re mostly interesting as contingent value darts who need a Tyreek/Waddle injury to be fantasy-relevant, but given how concentrated targets are here between Hill/Waddle/Achane, the Smith departure means one of them could be fantasy-viable if Miami has WR injuries.
