Winning and transparency are the main goals of the ETR props product, and in this space, we aim to peel back the curtain on our process and shed some light on what goes into both our player projections and how we actually select picks. We hope that sharing this with you will help you better understand how to attack these markets yourself.
Let’s dive into Week 13.
Week 13 officials: 10-13, -$431
Week 13 alts: 1-14, -$81
Overall officials: 144-111, +$2,353; +8.52% ROI
Overall alts: 12-146, -$172; -10.51% ROI
Kyren Williams U16.5 Rushing Attempts -122 (13, W)
Mean proj: 14.5
Williams has been getting lined as an alpha back for most of the season, but he doesn’t have the rushing splits to back it up.
From Weeks 1-6, Williams averaged a 72% rushing share to Corum’s 20%; since then, Corum has cut the gap to a 58/39 split. Yet Williams continues to be given lines like the 16.5 attempts we saw this week.
This week, we projected Williams for a 65% share to Corum’s 35%, and that was exactly where it ended up.
Jaxson Dart O25.5 Rushing Yards -114 (20, L)
ETR NFL Player Props
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