Episode Summary: Market Monday – Episode 1,000 (July 27, 2026)
Adam Levitan celebrates episode 1,000 of the ETR podcast with another Market Monday. He’s adjusted his stance on Malik Nabers after Nabers avoided the active PUP list — ETR is back to 30 overall on him, and Adam is comfortable with roughly 8% exposure at an average pick cost around 35. He is betting on Fernando Mendoza at 176 despite the Kirk Cousins rhetoric out of Vegas. The No. 1 overall pick with Klint Kubiak on the sticks is a swing worth taking on Brock Bowers teams. And Sam LaPorta is a buy at 88 with the Lions likely to lead the NFL in touchdowns and LaPorta carrying real contingent upside if any of Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, or Amon-Ra St. Brown goes down. Plus Tyquan Thornton as a Chiefs late-round flier, why the David Montgomery/Woody Marks “split lead back” report is noise, and Braelon Allen slipping as Isaiah Davis pushes for the Jets’ backup job.
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Key Topics
- Risers: Malik Nabers up 3.5 spots to 37 overall on DraftKings, Tyquan Thornton up 3.1 to 220, and Sam LaPorta up 3.0 to 88.
- Fallers: David Montgomery down a spot to 48 overall, Braelon Allen down 3.6 to 193, and Fernando Mendoza down 2.8 to 176 on Underdog.
Takeaway #1 (2:48): Adam is bumping Malik Nabers back up after the no-PUP news. Roughly 8% at pick 35 is where he wants to be.
- Nabers did not start training camp on the active/PUP list, which is important because now he is no longer eligible to be placed on reserve/PUP ahead of the regular season. Once a player goes on reserve/PUP, he is ineligible to play the first four games. The Giants’ decision here strongly suggests they expect Nabers to play sometime before Week 4. It does not mean the knee is 100%, he starts practicing anytime soon, or that he is a lock for Week 1.
- Adam thinks ETR is being too stubborn if they do not adjust on this news. Nabers would have been a top-12 player if healthy. The no-PUP move affects his early-season outlook, but it speaks to his late-season outlook even more. If Nabers can practice sometime in August and play sometime in September, Adam is way more confident he can be 90-95% of himself by November and December when all the money is on the line. The Giants play at Detroit in Week 16 and at Dallas in Week 17.
- A few weeks ago, Adam talked about getting Nabers in the 40s. ETR bumped his rank back up to 30 overall on full-PPR DraftKings. There is downside: The injury was significant; he could aggravate it, and he could be a shell of himself. But if Adam had 8% Nabers with an average pick cost around 35 overall, he would be pretty happy with that. That is where he wants to be.
Takeaway #2 (13:46): Fernando Mendoza at 176 is worth the risk on Brock Bowers teams
- Some people are scared of Mendoza because of the rhetoric out of Vegas: Kirk Cousins is going to start Week 1, they want Cousins to start all year, and the national and local media is rolling with it. Adam’s opinion is this is just how it always goes with highly drafted rookie quarterbacks. Russell Wilson was going to start all year until the Giants realized he was dust and got Jaxson Dart in there. Tyler Shough eventually played. Drake Maye was going to get benched early as a rookie. Michael Penix Jr. and Kirk Cousins — Cousins was benched for Penix with the Falcons.
- Cousins is in his age-38 season with a throwing shoulder injury and an Achilles tear. Adam is willing to bet that Mendoza starts six, eight, or 10 games this year. It will be late in the season. This is the opposite of the Jacoby Brissett pick — Adam does not take Brissett at all because he really thinks Carson Beck or someone else is going to be starting late in the year. Mendoza is the opposite: Maybe he does not start in September or October, but Adam expects him in there late.
- Getting the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, who has Klint Kubiak on the sticks, at 176 overall on Brock Bowers teams or with back-end stacks like Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor, or Michael Mayer is worth the risk at this cost. Especially on teams that fall behind at quarterback and need a third quarterback for the second half of the season.
Takeaway #3 (7:52): Sam LaPorta at 88 is Adam’s best bet to match the elite tight ends
- LaPorta underwent a microdiscectomy last November to repair a fully herniated disc in his back. He was fully cleared for camp. That was not a surprise: All offseason pointed toward LaPorta being fine. ETR did not change the rank on the news, but confirmation still matters. ETR has been decently ahead of market on LaPorta for a few months, and the market is now caught up to them at 88 overall on DraftKings.
- Tight end is such an interesting position this year because Adam likes so many different pockets. Brock Bowers is going to smash. Same with Colston Loveland. The mid-range group gives you Tucker Kraft, LaPorta, Harold Fannin Jr., George Kittle, and Dalton Kincaid. Late, you get Dallas Goedert, Juwan Johnson, Chig Okonkwo, T.J. Hockenson, and Gunnar Helm. Adam tries not to force it in drafts, but the pockets are all appealing.
- Of the mid-range guys, if any of them are going to match the Bowers/Trey McBride/Loveland types with the nut runout, LaPorta is probably the best bet. Legit good target earner, legit touchdown scorer for a team Adam thinks will lead the NFL in touchdowns. LaPorta also carries a bonus — if Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, or Amon-Ra St. Brown goes down, LaPorta gets a big boost. Kyle Pitts only gets a boost if Drake London goes down. Kraft and Fannin do not have as much contingent value, either.
Listen to the Full Episode
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About Establish The Run
Establish The Run was founded by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva, two of the most respected analysts in fantasy football and sports betting. ETR delivers high-quality, actionable analysis across season-long, best ball, DFS, and props.
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