Kerrane: TE Targets and Fades in the Early Rounds

Last week I used PFF’s Yards per Route Run (YPRR) data to lay out a methodology for identifying TE targets and fades. That methodology buckets TEs into four groups, and uses slightly different criteria to find target profiles for each group. The stats I’m using for those evaluations are the two stats that make up YPRR: Targets per Route Run (TPRR) and Yards per Target (YPT).

1. Stud TEs coming off at least their second season of 200+ TE Premium points
   1. TPRR 18%+ ; YPT 7.5+
2. Emerging TEs coming off their first elite season
   1. TPRR 20%+ ; YPT 7.5+
3. Bounce-back / Yet to breakout veteran TEs coming off a non-elite season
   1. TPRR 20%+ ; YPT 8+
4. TEs entering Year two or three
   1. TPRR 16%+ ; YPT 8+

(Min 150 routes for all groups)

Below I’ve covered all the TEs going Rounds 1 – 6 in the FFPC FBG Tournament. I’ve applied the methodology above, while also incorporating my own assessment of these TEs heading into 2020 to determine who we should be targeting at their current cost.

(The targets totals I refer to below are from PFF).

Travis Kelce, KC – FFPC ADP: 1.08

Group 1: Stud TE

Travis Kelce is coming off the fifth elite season of his career, and was highly efficient in achieving this landmark. Kelce put up a YPT of 9.5 and a TPRR of 23.6%, both of which are very strong. He easily meets the target profile for stud TEs.

There’s a slight age concern with Kelce, as he’s entering his age 30 season and turns 31 in October. But 30+ year-old TEs account for over 1/4th of the elite TE seasons we’ve seen since 2006, as do players entering their eighth year or later. His age isn’t ideal, but his large and well-established pass-catching role in an elite offense remains far more important.

Priority Target. Considering how Kelce performed last year, he’s a strong bet for another elite season and a strong pick in the 1st round of TE premium leagues.