When drafting a defense for fantasy football, our focus should be on what can help us accrue points (sacks, turnovers, TDs), as opposed to limiting the opponent’s scoring output. Accomplishing both is obviously great, but we already have a good sense of which teams are expected to score the most or least in a given week by using Vegas team totals.
But how do we know which teams to target for sacks, interceptions, and fumble recoveries?
Sacks, interceptions, and a sack leading to a fumble can only occur when the opposing team drops back to pass, so the easiest way to estimate defensive success in fantasy scoring is to target defenses that will see plenty of dropbacks and have the means to benefit from those dropbacks. How exactly can we target these defenses? I like to use the following criteria…
- The defense I’m selecting is favored to win the game; the bigger the spread, the better.
- The defense has an advantage in Thorn’s DL/OL matchup for that game.
- The opposing quarterback is vulnerable to sacks and turnovers.
Following those three criteria will generally put us in a good spot to get fantasy production out of our defenses.
One of the biggest edges we offer at ETR comes from the great Brandon Thorn, who dissects the OL/DL matchups in every game on a weekly basis, as well as providing a full list of preseason rankings. Using Thorn’s season-long Offensive Line and Defensive Line rankings can give us a massive edge over our league-mates when drafting a defense. We can predict which teams will have the biggest advantages in the trenches throughout the course of the season, which will help us select defenses more likely to rack up pressures and sacks and lead us to fantasy points.
There are a few defenses in the league we can feel confident in starting each week, but the vast majority of fantasy defenses are streaming-only options against inferior offenses or inexperienced quarterbacks. Below is a breakdown, by tier, of our favorite defenses to roster early in the season. The turnover on fantasy D/STs throughout the year is higher than any other position, so we’ll focus mainly on the beginning stretch of games and help you piece together in-season defenses when we reach that point in the season.
One final thought before we jump into the rankings: The new kickoff rule could add some more excitement and upside to special teams units who master it early on. There were only four kickoffs returned for a touchdown in the 2023 season, and expectations are the new kickoff setup could lead to more exciting returns. It’s just something to monitor as we enter this new era of NFL kickoffs.
Tier 1: Every-Week Starters
New York Jets
Despite playing last season with Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian at quarterback and entering nearly every game as an underdog, Robert Saleh‘s unit posted fantastic fantasy production. They finished as the D/ST4 and come back this season to have Brandon Thorn’s No. 1-ranked defensive line. Add that to an elite secondary led by Sauce Gardner, and the Jets should be an every-week fantasy stalwart with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.
The Jets have a tough opening-week matchup at San Francisco, but then play the Titans, Patriots, Broncos, and Vikings in Weeks 2-5. All four of those teams feature a weak offensive line or rookie quarterback, making them a prime target for us when selecting a fantasy defense.
Dallas Cowboys
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