I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
DRAFTKINGS ANALYSIS
I thought there were two big keys to this slate: Pick the right three RBs out of the six who were in play. And decide if a mid-range tight end was worth the spend.
MY MUST PLAYS (DK)
* The 49ers were without Deebo Samuel (calf), Christian McCaffrey (Achilles), and George Kittle (hamstring). Not only did all those injuries open up a ton of targets, but it also opened up a massive amount of red-zone opportunities. The Niners were also facing a Rams “defense” which was dead last in yards per play allowed through two weeks.
That made both Brandon Aiyuk ($6200) and Jordan Mason ($6200) absolute musts. They were priced as if both Deebo and Kittle were playing.
MY WANT PLAYS (DK)
* With Kenneth Walker (abdominal) out Week 2, Zach Charbonnet had the best RB usage in the entire NFL. I expected that role to sustain in Week 3 – but this time for a home game against the Tua-less Dolphins. A running back ticketed for 100% of the RB touches, who is excellent in the pass game, as a 4.5-point home favorite, at $6000 is a very clean spot for cash. Charbonnet would’ve been a “must” on a weaker RB slate.
* Alvin Kamara was close to a must. But the RB position was so insanely strong this week, I thought it was possible to go in other directions. We had Cam Akers ($4700) without Joe Mixon + Dameon Pierce, Saquon Barkley with an absurd role of the Eagles at just $200 more than Kamara, and De’Von Achane ($7000) without Raheem Mostert.
In the end though, the elite pass-game ability plus workhorse role for Klint Kubiak made Kamara really strong. Especially once Taysom Hill (chest) was ruled out, reducing the chances of goal-line vulturing.
* We talked about Chris Olave all week as arguably the best “Buy Low” in fantasy. The Saints are running a very concentrated offense under Klint Kubiak, featuring very little WR3, RB2, or TE targets. So if they would continue to be a plus-offense and also play from neutral or behind, Olave was going to get smacked in the face with positive regression. The mere $1000 different between Olave and Rashid Shaheed was not enough.
* The third WR spot this week was really tough. I thought any of Jauan Jennings (no Deebo or Kittle), Rome Odunze (no Keenan Allen), Tank Dell (too cheap at $5200), Rashid Shaheed, Devonta Smith, and Nico Collins were all options. In the end, I wanted a floor. And in our projections, Jaxon Smith-Ngijba had the highest floor among the low-$5K options. I also thought JSN’s 16 targets from Week 2 were notable simply because deep-route running Dell and Shaheed could never sniff that.
* I thought four quarterbacks were options: Jalen Hurts ($7300), Kyler Murray ($6900), Derek Carr ($5800) and Geno Smith ($5600). In today’s NFL climate of 2-high safeties, light defenses, and run-based playcalling, I do think we need to be careful about QB spends. But the pricing reflected this – Kyler Murray’s dual-threat ability was only $1100 more than pocket-passing Carr. So I thought getting to Kyler or Hurts was right, especially if punting at tight end. In this lineup I only had enough for Kyler.
* We had no positive values on any tight end this slate. I thought Jake Ferguson was fine at $4500, but he was coming off an MCL injury and was appropriately priced.
But given the way the tight end slate was priced, I thought punting the position was right. I didn’t expect any real points, but when most of the position fails then spending the least possible works. More importantly, I want to prioritize WR spend when it’s close – that’s the position where we make our money.
Anyway, the last 2v2 I looked at was Foster Moreau and Titans D/ST or Eric Saubert and Bucs D/ST. Moreau is a reasonable pass-catcher, while Saubert’s long history in the NFL is as a blocker. So with Malik Willis starting for the Packers, I went with the Moreau/TEN side.
Week 3 Results
I obviously lost to anyone who played Jauan Jennings. Given that Jennings was in play for cash on DK, I feel fortunate to book a breakeven week there. A big key was prioritizing Zach Charbonnet over Cam Akers – that gap could’ve been even bigger if Akers didn’t get a garbage-time receiving touchdown.
As for FanDuel, Cam Akers was just $4000 there. That opened up both spends at QB (I went Kyler Murray) and TE (I went Trey McBride). That turned out to be a bad thing as I didn’t need the Zach Charbonnet savings. Still, the Colts D and Rashee Rice made all the difference. I did prefer Colts D over Titans D thanks to coaching (Shane Fraudron against Colts, Matt LaFleur against Titans), offensive line play (Bears are a mess), and projected dropbacks (expected very run-heavy plan from Packers).
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1 DraftKings: 147.38 points, won 98.6% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 116.94, won 21.1% of head-to-heads
Week 2 FanDuel: 143.24, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 109.3 points, won 54.8% of head-to-heads
Week 3 Fanduel: 111.88 points, won 71.9% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
