The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at Week 5.
Week 5 officials: 10-10, -$122
Week 5 alts: 4-13, +$208
Overall officials: 53-41, +$750; +6.94% ROI
Overall alts: 16-55, +$747; +58.60% ROI
Props Total: +$1,497; +12.39% ROI
Sterling Shepard U2.5 Receptions -128 (1, W)
Mean proj: 2.0
Shepard was stepping into the WR3 role that has little value with the Bucs’ offense funneling everything through Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Jalen McMillan earned just six targets through three games in that role.
Could Shepard, 31 years old and having already lost the job to McMillan, be a better target earner than McMillan? That was the assumption from the betting market with this line, but we projected Shepard as a worse target earner than McMillan.
Our projections on Tampa pass catchers were spot on.
ETR NFL Player Props
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