I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was yet another slate on DraftKings where I thought the pool of cash options at RB, WR, and TE pools was very small. So I knew the results would come down to a lot of 2v2s and 3v2s, mostly around different WR/QB/TE options.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Bucky Irving was already closing on Rachaad White for the Bucs’ feature back role. So with White (foot) out, I was always playing Bucky at just $5400. Especially since he is a solid pass-catcher (56 receptions at Oregon last year) and the Bucs had a great chance to control the game against Spencer Rattler.
* Yes, I know Bijan Robinson had been frustrating through five weeks. Tyler Allgeier is playing far more than I thought he would. However, DraftKings finally got Bijan to a price ($6600) which reflected the timeshare usage he’s seeing. And that was perfect timing given a matchup with the Panthers, who are the best possible matchup for RBs per our DvP metrics.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I only considered four RBs on the entire DraftKings slate: Bucky Irving and Bijan Robinson (see above). Plus one of Tony Pollard or Chuba Hubbard.
I didn’t have a strong take between Pollard and Hubbard. The rejuvenated Pollard was certainly in a better matchup, Colts were our 2nd-best matchup for RBs in DvP. But Hubbard’s three-down plus goal-line role was really strong as well. If I had the extra $300, I likely would’ve played Hubbard.
* I rarely consider a D/ST a must. But given the tight pricing on this slate and the other sub-$3K options, the Bucs D/ST was certainly a standout. I did prefer Eagles, Texans, and Steelers over Bucs, but they were all at least $800 more. I did not consider any D/STs under $2600, and was more than fine with Bucs against Round 5 rookie Spencer Rattler making his first career start behind a banged up offensive line.
* I really liked Jake Ferguson in this spot. Brandin Cooks was out, the Lions are a pass funnel, and Ferguson is Dak’s second-best option in the pass game.
However, longtime readers know my attitude at tight end in DraftKings cash. The floor/ceiling combo at the position is so weak, I’m always willing to take the cheapest viable option. I didn’t think it was worth a worse play at QB to get up from Cade Otton to Ferguson.
Meanwhile, this was a solid spot for Otton to capitalize on his dominant route rate. We had muted projections on Mike Evans for the Marshon Lattimore matchup, and it was in a dome. It certainly helps that the Bucs are one of the most pass-centric teams in 2024 NFL.
* A hard part of these kind of slates on DK is that we have to play a WR we don’t really love. That’s just what happens when a slate is priced tightly and there are no exciting spots at cheap WR. It’s very uncomfortable, there’s no doubt.
I looked at Ladd McConkey, Dontayvion Wicks (when I thought Christian Watson would miss), Josh Downs (once Joe Flacco was in), Darnell Mooney, and Jalen Tolbert. I really didn’t think any were great cash options. Once Flacco was announced, I did want to play Downs over Mooney as I discussed with Evan on Last Minute Livestream. But I didn’t think it was worth going down from Bijan to Chuba, or going down from Lamar to Hurts to make it happen.
* I considered lineups with four different QBs: Spencer Rattler, Dak Prescott, Justin Fields, and Lamar Jackson. I would have been fine with any.
Of course I didn’t think Rattler would play well, but at just $4000 he only needs 12-15 points to be a winner – as long as the other QBs don’t go for 30+. However, the upgrades I got from Rattler were things like Tre Tucker up to Diontae Johnson and Cade Otton up to Jake Ferguson. I thought it was close, but in the end I went with the safety of Lamar Jackson in a wildly good matchup.
* The last 2v2 I looked at was CeeDee Lamb and Tre Tucker vs. Diontae Johnson and Drake London. We had the Johnson/London side ahead 32.4 to 31.2. However, I really wanted exposure to this Dallas pass game in a spot I thought Dak Prescott would push toward 40 pass attempts. Also, Diontae Johnson had a groin issue a couple weeks ago and was listed questionable this week with an ankle issue.
As I mentioned on the Solo Pod Monday, I am always willing to IKB (I know better) the projections when it’s within 1-3 points. That doesn’t mean I’ll be right, but for more context please listen to that free pod.
WEEK 6 RESULTS
On DraftKings, I did well not to overemphasize tight end. And I did well not to get scared off Bijan Robinson. I do think I got a bit unlucky on CeeDee Lamb, as the Cowboys completely faceplanted and CeeDee only had 16.1 points on 14 targets (42% share!). And I did get very lucky with one of Cade Otton’s two catches going for a TD. But playing Tre Tucker in a difficult matchup against the Steelers probably shouldn’t have been under consideration. Last week I IKB-ed my way off Deebo Samuel and it worked. This week I IKB-ed off Diontae/London on DK and it didn’t work.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 147.38 points, won 98.6% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 116.94 points, won 21.1% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 109.3 points, won 54.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: 146.28 points, won 75.3% of head-to-heads
Week 5 DraftKings: 143.06 points, won 83.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 134.12 points, won 50.1% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 2 FanDuel: 143.24 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 111.88 points, won 71.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: 120.92 points, won 41.9% of head-to-heads
Week 5 FanDuel: 130.22 points, won 71.4% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 133.36 points, won 80.6% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
