CFB DFS Top Plays: Week 7 – Saturday Main

 

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated as necessary.

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Understanding optimal lineups for cash games is extremely important, even if you only play tournaments. Players in our cash pool are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and typically feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. These are the best plays on the board when considering price, context, and positional scarcity. These are usually pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will typically mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options, often in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, we should be much more mindful of ownership. For more tournament content, check out our projections, and Friday’s live show, Establish The Show: The College Years, with Alex Hardin and Sean Newsham.

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: mean projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

 

QUARTERBACK

Bo Nix (ORE – DK $10,000, FD $12,400) – This is one of the worst weeks we have ever seen for the quarterback position on a DK main slate, as there are no clear plays on the board, especially with the current approach to pricing the position. Bo Nix is definitely overpriced, however, he has a tremendous floor and there are viable mid-range plays across the other positions to make solid lineups that include him. Despite being a short road dog, Oregon is one of the teams we feel quite confident will find offensive success. While he is not a priority, Nix is certainly in the conversation in all formats and is a slight preference to Michael Penix. GPP Recommendation: 1 to 2 pass catchers in stack.

Jalen Milroe (BAMA – DK $8,400, FD $12,400) – Alabama certainly dialed up the pass rate last week versus Texas A&M, and it will be interesting to see if they continue that approach versus Arkansas. Despite much criticism this season, Milroe has still been a decent performer from a fantasy perspective with really only one poor game (versus Ole Miss). Nick Saban has been heaping praise upon Milroe this week for the growth he has made this season, and it is finally starting to feel like his team. Arkansas has been good at preventing explosive running plays, but they have a tendency to allow chunks through the air. With the current state of the Alabama rushing attack, we could very well see a pass-heavy approach, especially on the heels of last week’s performance, and we know Milroe will be active as part of the ground attack. GPP Recommendation: 0 to 1 pass catchers in stack.