DFS Top Plays: Week 9

Last Updated: Friday November 3rd at 11:51am ET

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated once on Sunday morning, if necessary.

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context and positional depth is accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership or game stacks or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. 

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: Median projection, matchup, upside and value. Ownership is not considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations.” They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for. 

QUARTERBACK
Russell Wilson ($7100 DK, $8600 FD) — Bucs have the NFL’s best rush defense despite facing the toughest running back schedule. Meanwhile, their pass defense is ranked 26th in DVOA.

Aaron Rodgers ($6900 DK, $8100 FD) — Davante Adams’ return coupled with Aaron Jones’ pass-game emergence and the Chargers defensive injuries sets up Rodgers nicely.

Matthew Stafford ($6800 DK, $7900 FD) — The injury to Kerryon Johnson and high-quality play of Danny Amendola allows the Lions to lean more on the white-hot Stafford. Raiders are 29th in yards per pass attempt allowed.

Josh Allen ($6500 DK, $7700 FD) — Overpriced relative to the ceiling he’s shown this season. But remember Allen went over 25 DK points four times in 12 games last year and the Redskins are 19th in yards per play allowed.

Derek Carr ($5500 DK) — In lineup constructions that jam both Christian McCaffery and Dalvin Cook, a punt QB will likely be needed. Carr catches a golden matchup against a Lions defense which can’t rush the passer and has allowed top-12 fantasy finishes to 6-of-7 QBs they’ve faced this season. This is a DK-specific play.

Matt Moore ($4800 DK) — If Patrick Mahomes is out, Moore steps into a home game with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and Andy Reid on his side at just $4800. Another DK-specific play.

RUNNING BACK
Christian McCaffery ($10000 DK, $9700 FD) — Always risk at these eye-opening prices, but CMC remains a value thanks to floor/ceiling combo. If we remove two games against Tampa’s league-best rush defense, McCaffery’s floor game is 30.5 DK points and ceiling is 50.7.

Dalvin Cook ($9500 DK, $9000 FD) — Averaging 23.1 touches per game even though the Vikings have been involved in a fistful of blowouts. Sunday’s game at Arrowhead projects to be close and Chiefs have the league’s No. 30 rush defense DVOA.

Le’Veon Bell ($7700 DK, $7000 FD) — Major squeaky wheel narrative after Bell met with Adam Gase to “clear the air” about his usage. Perfect timing given the Dolphins are dead last in virtually every defensive category.

Nick Chubb ($7300 DK, $8100 FD) — With Brandon Allen under center and the Browns DL likely to overwhelm the Broncos OL, there are direct paths to a Chubb ceiling game. Running backs facing Denver have seen 29.8 touches per game.

Aaron Jones ($7000 DK, $7700 FD) — Can’t project more than 10-15 carries with Jamaal Williams involved, but Jones’ pass-game role is becoming elite. Chargers defense has cratered under weight of injuries.

Jaylen Samuels ($4000 DK, $5000 FD) — No-brainer play of the week as prices came out before MNF injuries to both James Conner and Benny Snell. Samuels, one of the league’s best pass-catching backs, has a direct path to playing every snap Sunday.

WIDE RECEIVER
Tyler Lockett ($7500 FD) — Dream matchup against the NFL’s biggest pass funnel. Only realistic path to failure is a lack of volume as Lockett is 46th in targets per game. Far cheaper on Fanduel.

Chris Godwin ($7300 DK, $8200 FD) — The Bucs’ lack of run game, lack of tight end production and lack of No. 3 wideout puts Godwin and Mike Evans in play weekly. We slightly prefer Godwin as his route tree and usage provides a firmer floor.

Keenan Allen ($6400 DK) — Limited to 68% of the snaps last week by hamstring strain, but practiced full this week and wasn’t even listed on injury report. As noted in Matchups, Packers have been flamed in the slot.

John Brown ($6100 DK, $6200 FD) — Josh Norman and the Redskins secondary has no prayer of staying with Brown. The pricetag is a bit of a stretch on DK, but he’s very cheap on FD.

DJ Moore ($4800 DK, $5400 FD) and Curtis Samuel ($4300 DK) — Samuel (shoulder) is listed questionable but the Panthers confirmed he’ll play Sunday. Both Panthers WRs are extremely cheap for their floor/ceiling combos on a slate where their prices fit optimal roster construction.

Mike Williams ($4600 DK, $5700 FD) — Highted in the Buy Low model once again, Williams’ lack of touchdowns on his big-time opportunity sticks out. As noted in Matchups, Big Mike is likelier to draw highly flammable Kevin King than stud Jaire Alexander.

Jarvis Landry ($4500 DK) — Shoulder soreness not a real concern. Popping in Buy Low model and Chris Harris projects to shadow Odell. Route tree and price ideal for DK scoring format. 

TIGHT END
Darren Waller ($6300 DK, $6800 FD) — League-best usage at the tight end position in one of the week’s likeliest shootouts. Makes more sense on FD where the tight end pricing is both depressed and clustered. 

Hunter Henry ($6400 FD) — DraftKings has oddly priced Henry up to $6000, making him a tough sell in cash there. But Fanduel continues to depress the top end of the tight end pool, giving us access to Henry’s outstanding usage.

Zach Ertz ($4700 DK, $6000 DK) — The likely return of DeSean Jackson steals both targets and 2-TE sets. But D-Jax will also open up the middle of the field and keep Dallas Goedert on the sidelines at a higher rate.

Greg Olsen ($3500 DK) — Olsen continues to play nearly every snap and run a route on nearly all of Kyle Allen’s dropbacks. His price on DK does not reflect that and he has a neutral at worst matchup. 

Jack Doyle ($3000 DK) — Eric Ebron (ankle) will play, but TY Hilton (calf) will not. We can push some targets to Doyle as a punt option strictly on DK.

DEFENSE
Bills ($3800 DK, $5000 FD) — Redskins sending Dwayne Haskins to face the league’s No. 3 defense in yards per play allowed.

Browns ($3100 DK, $4300 FD) — Brandon Allen’s first career NFL start comes in a brutal OL/DL mismatch. In Brandon Thorn’s latest ranks, the Browns have the league’s 8th-best DL for pressure and the Broncos have the league’s No. 25 OL.

Panthers ($2800 DK, $4000 FD) — No. 3 mismatch in Thorn’s ranks this week. Ryan Tannehill on the road is going to be under pressure plenty.

Redskins ($1800 DK) — A DraftKings-specific punt option. Redskins haven’t allowed more than 19 points in three straight games and Josh Allen remains one of the league’s most mistake-prone QBs.