Welcome to the fifth playoff edition of GPP Leverage. This article is going to be a catch-all space for my GPP thoughts. In every article I’ll address some of the relevant GPP plays for that day’s slate, but some of the articles will be more focused on plays and others more focused on strategy. Today is going to be another more generic strategy version as we focus on Game 1 opportunities. We think this piece along with a strategy-based article on small slates from last Tuesday are things we’d review before playing this slate.
Taking Advantage of Game 1 in NBA DFS
Game 1s of new series during the playoffs provide immense opportunity in GPPs because coaching decisions change as the opponent changes. Some situations will be more difficult to diagnose than others, but most people playing DFS are going to simply use the latest rotations in a previous series as their baseline for the next series. On Sunday, we saw plenty of examples of this in Game 1 between Boston and Toronto. Let’s highlight a few:
Results from Toronto-Boston Game 1
Rotation Change #1 – Enes Kanter OUT, Robert Williams IN and Daniel Theis heavier minutes
We covered this in our Eastern Conference Round 2 Preview Pod but the Celtics were the team that had the most opportunity to change given the 76ers are such a unique opponent with Joel Embiid. The Celtics’ rotations were clearly adapting for Embiid as they would occasionally have 30-second rotations to get guys in or out based on 76ers substitution patterns. Embiid is a unique beast given how many possessions he uses in the post and Enes Kanter‘s size was a necessity. In this series against Toronto, there isn’t the same post presence. Marc Gasol has a minimal offensive role and Serge Ibaka is mostly utilized in pick-and-roll, which is a weakness for Kanter. It was a difficult situation to project Kanter completely out of the rotation in favor of Williams but it was a profitable one if you took the chance. Williams was bare minimum on FanDuel ($3,500) and generated 27 FanDuel points. He was the best value on the slate at the center position and completely un-owned in GPPs.
The second part of the rotation change when Embiid isn’t your opponent, is the main starting center had a clearer path to heavy minutes. We expected Daniel Theis to approach 30 minutes but he was getting priced for limited minutes from the first series. Theis looked like the clear best play at a thin power forward position. He was “only” 30 percent owned in GPPs on FanDuel and 40ish percent owned on DraftKings. Given he projected close to a lock button candidate, this was a major opportunity.
Rotation Change #2 – Expecting Tighter Rotations from Boston
We highlighted in our Top Plays article two examples that gave us confidence the Celtics would play tighter rotations against Toronto. The first was their final “tune-up” game against the Raptors in the seeding games. The Celtics blew them out and played their best game of the seeding period and it was via a tight playoff-like rotation. The big difference is they didn’t have Gordon Hayward this time around, which theoretically only condensed things further. We were high on Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Daniel Theis as a result with Kemba Walker a secondary target – all players who would potentially see more elevated playing time or roles. Smart and Theis were slate winners while Brown rode a poor shooting performance and foul trouble to an underwhelming effort. This correct guess was quite valuable in GPPs as the Celtics were a bit under-owned.
Rotation Change #3 – Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka played together, eliminating Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
We knew the Raptors would eventually embrace the tighter 7.5-man rotation they utilized through last year’s playoffs but we weren’t sure when or how. In Game 1, with Siakam in a bit of early foul trouble, they went to the double big lineup they utilized in the playoffs last year. The lineup is a tough fit against Boston’s slashing wings but Ibaka and Gasol combined for 52 minutes in a game neither played the final five minutes. We thought Gasol’s minutes would return to the mid-20s and had him as a secondary value on DraftKings but this formation allowed Ibaka to retain some of his value as well. We’ll see if the Raptors stick with it or adjust further (possibly more Norm Powell?) in future games.
Projecting Milwaukee-Miami Game 1
Potential Miami Changes:
Miami has a lot of room to move things around. While the last regular season game between Boston-Toronto gave us some clarity, the last Miami-Milwaukee seeding game saw the Heat play without Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler. The other regular season games also involved different players missing time or just wildly different rotations from what Miami has been utilizing of late. This is going to require more guess-work.
The Heat utilized a lot of smaller lineups against the Pacers. We saw a lot more Tyler Herro to close as they played with more ball-handlers: Dragic-Herro-Butler-Iguodala-Adebayo was the preferred closing lineup. This lineup seems too small for the Heat to close with in this series unless they’re comfortable with Iguodala on Giannis. So we *think* Herro’s minutes are vulnerable. IF it’s not Herro’s minutes who are vulnerable because the Heat need more offense and play-making, then Iguodala would seem next in line as the most vulnerable. The only way this closing lineup fits is IF Milwaukee is comfortable playing small and removing Brook Lopez from the closing unit.
In terms of actions, we can shade ownership/exposure away from Herro/Iguodala or group them as a Max 1. OR you can Max 2 of Iguodala/Herro/Lopez as it seems unlikely all three close.
The last seeding game Miami started Crowder-Olynyk-Bam as the frontcourt. It’s a lineup combination that I find particularly interesting because IF Duncan Robinson is played off the floor because of defensive issues, I think the Heat’s best defensive lineups include these three along with Butler and Dragic. This would allow the Heat to put Crowder or Butler on Bledsoe, hide Dragic on Matthews, Bam on Giannis, Olynyk on Lopez, and Butler or Crowder on Middleton. This is an ideal defensive lineup but has some offensive issues related to shooting and play-making. The Heat would really need Olynyk and Crowder to shoot well in order to generate enough offense. IF they play this type of lineup though, Kelly Olynyk and Jae Crowder are under-valued. IF they’re unwilling to roll this lineup heavily, it’s difficult for Crowder and Olynyk to pay off together without Adebayo foul trouble.
In terms of actions, we can shade ownership/exposure towards Kelly Olynyk (he seems like the best buy-low candidate after a series that phased him out) and towards Jae Crowder. Bigger lineups in general should facilitate more opportunities for these two players.
The other potential rotation change that could help Olynyk and Crowder is if the Heat just cut Derrick Jones Jr. out of the rotation. He played less than 10 minutes in the last game and while his athleticism and fouls might be useful against Milwaukee, his offense is a real challenge in this series.
The wildcard is Duncan Robinson. The Bucks give up plenty of threes and the Heat offense probably struggles to score efficiently in this matchup. Are they willing to sacrifice their defense for the shooting that Robinson provides? If they are, Robinson could be the guy that is undervalued on playing time. I’m willing to bet against this given Robinson HAS to shoot efficiently to pay off his tag in a big way and while the Heat can hide him on Matthews or Korver, it’s difficult to hide him AND Dragic against the Bucks’ driving athleticism. IF you were to play Robinson lineups, they should not include Herro or Iguodala. I don’t see paths for those lineup combinations.
Potential Milwaukee Changes:
The Bucks weren’t forced to adapt much in their first-round matchup. They have plenty of different bench combinations that Budenholzer is willing to use but usually it’s platoon roles among bench guys that aren’t going to impact DFS much. Instead, the big change the Bucks could make is tightening their rotation. We’ve seen time and time again an unwillingness to do this but IF they do tighten things up, the minutes upside on Middleton and Giannis is most compelling. With Eric Bledsoe battling a hamstring strain, it seems unlikely they’d expand his minutes early on. George Hill would probably benefit as well given DiVincenzo-Korver are some spare parts they could cut down.
In terms of actions, we’d consider sliding some exposure towards Giannis-Middleton-Hill tonight and away from some of the MIL punts like Connaughton. This would certainly change a bit if Bledsoe is unable to go tonight as DiVincenzo and Hill would be forced into bigger roles but in general we’d still like to shade some exposure towards the Bucks’ big duo as we get deeper into the playoffs just in case Milwaukee tightens things up.
