3:00 PM ET AFC Championship Game
Cincinnati @ Kansas City
Team Totals: Chiefs 30.5, Bengals 23.5
Even after getting burned on the over for last week’s Bengals-Titans total by way of five field goals — including four from Zac Taylor’s team — I’m running right back to the over on Cincinnati’s 23.5-point team total here. Kansas City has surrendered a 25.5-point average over its last six games, including 34 when these same Bengals upset the Chiefs in Week 17. K.C. captain S Tyrann Mathieu (concussion) is in danger of missing, while DC Steve Spagnuolo’s defense doesn’t bring heat like Divisional Round foe Tennessee did; Kansas City ranks 30th in sack rate (4.8%) and bottom 11 in QB Hit Rate (14.2%). Stogie-smoking Joe Burrow has thrown for 300-plus passing yards in five of his last seven starts. For Cincinnati to keep pace on the scoreboard, I expect they’ll have to attack K.C. aggressively in the air. And even if they game plan otherwise, I suspect in-game script will force Taylor’s play-calling hand.
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