Evan Silva’s Matchups: Bills at Jets

Buffalo @ N.Y. Jets

Team Totals: Bills 23.5, Jets 21.5

Few players possess the raw upside of Josh Allen, but there’s no denying this is an imposing road spot. Last year’s QB3 in points per game, Allen struggled mightily as a passer in two dates with Robert Saleh’s Jets defense. Allen went a combined 34 for 61 passing (56%) for 352 yards (5.8 YPA) and a 1:2 TD:INT ratio. He saved his fantasy results with rushing lines of 9/86/2 and 10/47/1. 2022’s Jets allowed the NFL’s sixth-fewest fantasy points and fewest touchdown passes to quarterbacks. Allen is obviously still a must-start in season-long leagues, but I’d consider downgrading him to a mid-range QB1 here. … Trendy breakout candidate James Cook didn’t handle a single carry inside the 5-yard line as a rookie and was pulled for Damien Harris at the goal line this preseason. Cook is going to have to get there with big plays, something which he is capable of doing after averaging 5.7 yards per carry in 2022. Allen, Harris, and Latavius Murray are better bets for scoring-position work, and Allen has never targeted running backs frequently. The Jets surrendered the NFL’s fifth-fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs last season. … On one-game DFS slates, I slightly prefer more-talented Harris to 33-year-old Murray but love neither.

Stefon Diggs has eclipsed 100 catches and 1,200 yards in all three of his seasons in Buffalo, averaging 9.7 touchdowns per year with overall WR3, WR8, and WR3 finishes. 2023 is Diggs’ age-30 campaign, but he’s showing no signs of slowdown after finishing fifth in the NFL in yards per route run last season. The Jets did hold him to 5/93/0 and 3/37/0 stat lines in last year’s two meetings. Keyed by their elite corner tandem of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the 2022 Jets allowed the league’s fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. I’m downgrading Diggs into low-end WR1 territory based on this difficult draw.