Cleveland @ Kansas City
Team Totals: Chiefs 30, Browns 24.5
Browns-Chiefs presents a rematch of last January’s Divisional Round, which played to a 22-17 outcome in favor of Kansas City. Sportsbook lines (errantly) envisioned a shootout in that contest — the total was 55.5 — and are doing the same here. Odell Beckham’s return, Jarvis Landry’s improved health after 2020’s hip surgery complications, and Baker Mayfield’s second full year in analytical Kevin Stefanski’s system point to Mayfield delivering enhanced 2021 box-score results. Bringing back all five starters on a top-tier offensive line definitely helps. As a schemed-up pocket passer lacking dual-threat utility, I’m still skeptical enough of Mayfield to value him only as a high-end QB2.