Kansas City @ Green Bay
Team Totals: Chiefs 23.5, Packers 17.5
Patrick Mahomes has failed to throw for 300 yards in four consecutive games, the longest drought of his career. He does have multiple touchdown passes in three straight but has dipped to fantasy’s overall QB8. After tossing 3+ TDs in eight of 17 games last year, Mahomes has done so just twice in 11 tries in 2023. He now encounters a Green Bay pass defense allowing the NFL’s ninth-fewest passing yards and eighth-fewest fantasy QB points. I’m still confidently playing Mahomes in season-long leagues, but box-score expectations need to be lowered. … Due to Kansas City’s shortage of wideout talent, the Chiefs have leaned on their defense and run game. Isiah Pacheco ran with his typical abandon in Week 12’s comeback win over Vegas en route to his first career multi-TD game. Pacheco also caught all five of his targets, albeit with Jerick McKinnon (groin) sidelined. McKinnon is due back at Lambeau. Still, Pacheco is hot and facing a Packers defense yielding the league’s seventh-most rushing yards and 10th-most fantasy points to running backs. He’s a solid RB2. … McKinnon is averaging just 3.2 touches per game on the season.
Mahomes’ 2023 target distribution: Travis Kelce 88; Rashee Rice 56; Justin Watson 39; Skyy Moore 35; Pacheco 34; Kadarius Toney 30; Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Noah Gray 28; McKinnon 26; Mecole Hardman 10.
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