Super Bowl LVI
Cincinnati @ L.A. Rams
Team Totals: Rams 26, Bengals 22
Super Bowl LVI’s single-biggest position group mismatch pits Los Angeles’ defensive front versus Cincy’s offensive line; Joe Burrow took a league-high 51 regular season sacks, plus 12 in three playoff games. No. 3 in the NFL in 2021 sacks, Rams DC Raheem Morris’ unit owns massive personnel advantages here as Aaron Donald faces off with Cincinnati’s leaky offensive interior and Von Miller draws overmatched RT Isaiah Prince outside. On the season, ESPN Stats & Info collectively ranked the Bengals 30th in Pass-Block Win Rate, while the Rams’ defense ranked No. 1 in Pass-Rush Win Rate. Due largely to the pass pressure I expect Burrow to experience on Sunday, I bet him at -135 to throw at least one pick. In the regular season, only Dallas and New England’s defenses intercepted more passes than L.A. (19). … I’m bearish on Cincy’s offense; Sean McVay’s team enters Super Bowl Sunday with eight wins over its last nine and having held opponents to an 18.2-point average during that span. Through three playoff games, Morris’ defense has limited Kyler Murray, Tom Brady, and Jimmy Garoppolo to a combined 65-of-118 passing (55%) for 698 yards (5.9 YPA) with a 3:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 10 scoreless rushing yards. … Samaje Perine vultured a 41-yard screen-pass TD from Joe Mixon as part of Cincinnati’s two-minute drill toward the end of last week’s AFCCG first half, yet Mixon still pocketed 24 touches on a 75% snap rate and totaled 115 yards, his most since Week 16. Mixon checks in as a classic volume-driven DFS play.
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