Finally, Aaron Rodgers is officially signing with the Steelers. This has been the expectation all offseason with Rodgers unsurprisingly milking the saga for all it’s worth, but the veteran QB will report to minicamp for Pittsburgh next week. Let’s break down the fantasy impact of this move.
AARON RODGERS
- Rodgers is no longer a fantasy-relevant quarterback. He averaged 6.7 yards per attempt last year despite throwing to Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. He turns 42 years old in December. His 22 rushing attempts (in 17 games!) last year was his lowest total since he became a starter. Arthur Smith‘s Steelers were in the bottom quartile of the league last year in Pass Rate Over Expectation, and they have unproven weapons beyond DK Metcalf.
- The best thing you can say about Rodgers from a fantasy standpoint is that he has a good chance to start 17 games if healthy. With that being said, he’s 41 years old, and his abrasive personality at least adds some uncertainty as to what happens if the Steelers’ season goes south.
STEELERS PASS CATCHERS
- It’s been widely assumed that Pittsburgh would add Rodgers, so it should be mostly baked into the market. Rodgers was frankly awful last year, with the Jets ranking 24th in points per game (19.9) and 21st in yards per play (5.2).
- Pittsburgh had a -5.6% PROE in 2024, and that seems unlikely to change under Arthur Smith despite a splashy name like Rodgers hopping on board. Between Rodgers’ ineffectiveness last year and a run-heavy offense, this isn’t a spot where multiple WRs can thrive. Thankfully for DK Metcalf, the Steelers are sorely lacking for WR depth (Calvin Austin III, Roman Wilson, and Robert Woods as the WR2 hopefuls). Davante Adams had a 30% target share or higher in six of 11 games with New York last year, and Garrett Wilson still managed a >25% target share despite playing alongside Adams for most of the season. Rodgers is willing to feed one WR a massive target share; Metcalf believers will have to hope the two can develop a strong rapport.
- For the other WRs here, this should have been baked in, and I wouldn’t expect ADPs to move here. Historically, Rodgers has had specific players he’s taken a liking to. In such an uncertain WR2-4 group, that could end up mattering here, so we’ll see how that battle shakes out during training camp. We’re projecting Austin as the WR2 given he held that role at points last year, but Wilson and Woods could certainly end up there.
