The Texans made a pair of moves on Tuesday afternoon to bolster their offense, signing both Devin Singletary and Dalton Schultz. Houston seems overwhelmingly likely to draft a quarterback with the second overall pick, so signing the weapons necessary to adequately evaluate him is a sharp move. Singletary will complement Dameon Pierce in the Texans’ backfield, while Schultz should immediately usurp Teegan Quitoriano and assume TE1 duties in H-Town. Let’s dig into the fantasy impact of these signings.
Old projection: 116.0 carries for 511.6 yards and 3.8 TDs, 23.6 catches on 31.2 targets for 173.9 yards and 0.9 TDs
New projection: 135.8 carries for 583.5 yards and 3.6 TDs, 25.4 catches on 33.9 targets for 184.5 yards and 0.6 TDs
- We were baking in some risk on Singletary’s old projection because we didn’t know where he’d be playing.
- Singletary goes from one committee to another, and now he’s on a significantly worse offense. Pierce remains the presumed RB1 after a stellar rookie campaign, although it could be a fairly even split on early downs.
- The main question is who will get pass-catching downs in Houston. The Texans expanded Pierce’s receiving role slightly throughout the season after refusing to give him any third downs early in the year. Singletary, despite his smaller stature, has consistently graded as a below-average pass catcher according to Pro Football Focus (his 56.6 grade in 2022 was the best of his career, yet it was still merely average). Rex Burkhead is a free agent, leaving Pierce, Singletary, and Mike Boone as the likely three backs for Houston going into next season. None of those guys profile as pass-catching specialists, so that’ll be a storyline worth monitoring during training camp. For now, we are assuming Pierce has the edge as both a rusher and receiver, but we don’t have Singletary too far behind.
Old projection: 233.4 carries for 931.2 yards and 4.9 TDs, 33.8 catches on 45.4 targets for 238.9 yards and 1.0 TDs
New projection: 203.7 carries for 812.6 yards and 4.3 TDs, 33.6 catches on 45.2 targets for 237.8 yards and 0.9 TDs
- Our projection was likely too optimistic before this signing, as we weren’t baking in enough chance they added someone (our projections are still very fluid this time of year and currently not even baked into our rankings, although that will change soon).
- As the RB1 on a bad offense, Pierce was highly volume-dependent last year, so this signing is fairly devastating for him in that he’ll likely no longer dominate carries for the Texans. With that being said, the possibility Houston adds someone was already baked into his price, and Singletary is better for Pierce than if the Texans had drafted an RB in the early rounds of the draft. As mentioned above, it’s unclear who will be the main guy in clear passing situations (or if they’ll have a designated clear pass-catching RB in 2023 as they did with Rex Burkhead last year). We are treating Pierce as the 1A over Singletary, but this will be a committee on a bad offense and fantasy players will probably have to monitor practice reports during the summer to gauge which back will get the high-value touches.
Old projection: 60.9 catches on 88.9 targets for 628.7 yards and 5.4 TDs
New projection: 68.2 catches on 101.8 targets for 669.8 yards and 5.4 TDs
- Schultz posted a 19.2% target share for the Cowboys last year while competing for targets with CeeDee Lamb and (for most of the year) Michael Gallup, a feat made even more impressive by the fact that Schultz himself was banged up at times. He has been one of the more underrated TEs over the past couple of seasons and now joins a Texans team that is hurting for pass catchers besides Nico Collins and Robert Woods. Schultz should immediately establish himself as one of the highest-volume receivers for whoever the Texans have at QB next year, so he’s interesting in fantasy on volume alone.
- However, the Houston offense will likely be among the worst in the league and Schultz’s volume ceiling probably isn’t that far past 20%. Because of that, going from Dallas to Houston is obviously a sizable efficiency downgrade for Schultz, but volume alone will make him a viable fantasy option, especially in PPR formats.
- We knew the Bills were going to add a back, and they moved quickly after Singletary signed by adding Damien Harris. You can read our breakdown of that signing here.
- 2022 fourth-round pick Jake Ferguson is currently the top tight end on the Cowboys’ depth chart. There’s plenty of time to sign or draft someone, and our projections are baking in the possibility that Dallas’ TE1 is not yet on their roster. We did bump his target share a good amount with Schultz officially gone and a fairly meager TE free-agent market (Foster Moreau is likely the best available right now), but he’ll start to get legitimately interesting if it’s May and he’s still the TE1.
- We assumed the Texans would add pass catchers, so guys like Nico Collins and Robert Woods were not really affected in our projections.