Week 1 is one of the most exciting weeks of the year. But how much should we buy into what we saw vs. what we expected before the season? Below I look at 6 WRs and TEs who had strong starts to the season and answer the question: buy or sell?
Q: Is an overall TE1 finish in play for Mark Andrews?
A: Buy
Entering the 2020 season, I was extremely excited about Mark Andrews. But there were legitimate questions about why Mark Andrews was not a full time player in 2019. Yes, he was just a second year TE, struggling with a foot injury, on a team still giving considerable snaps to their former 1st Round TE pick. But Andrews is also a Type 1 Diabetic, and it was definitely possible that his usage would continue to be capped even with Hayden Hurst now in Atlanta.
But this was not the case in Week 1… at all. Andrews ran a route on 90% of dropbacks and earned a target on 24% of his routes. This is well below Andrews’ 2019 TPRR of 32.9%. But Andrews’ target rate last year was the highest by any TE on record, so we knew it was going to regress. What we wanted was more routes to make up that regression. The fact that he ran a route on a huge percentage or dropbacks therefore, while also maintaining an elite target rate, was extremely bullish for his 2020 outlook. Andrews was also highly efficient (as he’s always been), with a 9.7 YPT–giving the Ravens no reasons to second guess his increased
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