Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected on our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 38-29, +$495
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. George Pickens receptions
Line: 2.5 catches
Mean Projection: 2.3 catches
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+126)
Date: September 20, 1:07pm ET
Notes: Pickens continues to run plenty of routes, but has yet to earn many targets from Mitch Trubisky. He’s fourth or fifth in line for targets in what’s shaping up to be a low-scoring slog in Cleveland.
2. Najee Harris receiving yards
Line: 20.5 yards
Mean Projection: 18.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: September 20, 9:16pm ET
Notes: Najee had an efficient Week 2 outing catching the ball after recording just 3 receiving yards in Week 1. Traveling on a short week to Cleveland could limit his overall usage, and running back receiving unders have proven to be some of the strongest prop bets we can make.
3. Derek Carr passing + rushing yards
Line: 276.5 yards
Mean Projection: 271.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 21, 10:00am ET
Notes: The new-look Raiders don’t have a huge sample size, and we believe that uncertainty gives us an edge here.
4. Kyler Murray passing yards
Line: 257.5 yards
Mean Projection: 250.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 21, 3:05pm ET
Notes: Kyler’s pass catching corps is decimated, leading to inefficiency in the passing game for Murray. We’re expecting that to continue until he gets some of his weapons back.
5. Josh Jacobs receiving yards
Line: 13.5 yards
Mean Projection: 12.1 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-113)
Date: September 21, 5:58pm ET
Notes: Jacobs is operating as the pure base-down back for Josh McDaniels, running a route on only 41% of Derek Carr’s dropbacks thus far. He cedes third-down and long-down and distance work to Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden, so we’re expecting his target share to stay low.
6. Kyle Pitts receiving yards
Line: 41.5 yards
Mean Projection: 62.2 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: September 21, 8:04pm ET
Notes: Pitts has greatly underperformed to start the season, but we believe this line is too reactive.
7. Curtis Samuel receiving yards
Line: 51.5 yards
Mean Projection: 46.2 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 21, 9:39pm ET
Notes: Samuel has had excellent production so far, but the Commanders have also been aggressively pass-heavy. His low aDOT means if the volume decreases at all, this becomes a difficult number to hit.
8. D.K. Metcalf receptions
Line: 5.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 5.1 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-130)
Date: September 21, 9:44pm ET
Notes: An 11/13 start on converting targets to catches is likely inflating this number, and the game script is likely to be close enough to keep the volume in check.
9. Parris Campbell receiving yards
Line: 27.5 yards
Mean Projection: 21.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: September 22, 8:08am ET
Notes: Campbell has seen a lot of playing time, but has not turned that into production. Michael Pittman got in a limited practice Wednesday, and seemed close to playing in Week 2.
10. Alec Pierce receiving yards
Line: 26.5 yards
Mean Projection: 18.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: September 22, 8:11am ET
Notes: Pierce played behind Campbell in Week 1 before missing Week 2 due to a concussion. Similar to Campbell, a lot of target volume would go to Pittman if he is active.
11. Carson Wentz passing yards
Line: 255.5 yards
Mean Projection: 247.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 22, 8:15am ET
Notes: Washington is coming off of a game in an aggressive passing script, and the Eagle defense is better than what Wentz has faced so far.
12. Dalvin Cook receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.7 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-130)
Date: September 22, 8:29am ET
Notes: 11 targets in two games for Cook — he seems to have a fairly secure pass-catching role.
13. Ja’Marr Chase receptions
Line: 5.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 5.3 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+115)
Date: September 22, 8:36am ET
Notes: Chase is going to see inconsistent volume on the high end even though he is able to make massive plays. The price makes this right.
14. Derrick Henry carries
Line: 22.5 carries
Mean Projection: 22.8 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: September 22, 8:41am ET
Notes: Even though we project a slight over here, we find this bet to be +EV on a median basis. Plenty of paths to failure with how poor Tennessee has been out of the gate.
15. Stefon Diggs receiving yards
Line: 74.5 yards
Mean Projection: 98.3 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: September 22, 2:54pm ET
Notes: Diggs has been on fire to start the year and should see 75+ receiving yards here again in a potential shootout with the Dolphins. This line is also four yards lower than it is on DraftKings.
16. Cooper Rush pass yards
Line: 222.5 yards
Mean Projection: 215.1 yards
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: September 22, 3:15pm ET
Notes: Rush has played well in his limited action filling in for Dak Prescott, but we’ll gladly bet on a lack of efficiency from a backup quarterback on the road in a game where the weather could be a factor.
17. Chase Claypool rushing yards
Line: 0.5 yards
Mean Projection: 6.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: September 22, 5:38pm ET
Notes: Claypool handled six carries in Week 1, turning those into 36 yards. He did not receive a handoff in Week 2, but we’re expecting he will be utilized in the rushing game throughout the season and think tonight is a great opportunity with high winds likely to dampen each team’s passing game.
18. Leonard Fournette receiving yards
Line: 30.5 yards
Mean Projection: 29.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 22, 6:33pm ET
Notes: The Bucs are banged up at the WR position, but this is still a huge line for any running back.
19. Jahan Dotson receptions
Line: 3.5 catches
Mean Projection: 2.9 catches
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+100)
Date: September 22, 7:32pm ET
Notes: Washington’s plays are inflated by matchups with DET and JAX so far. Dotson is a very good rookie, but he is also facing a ton of competition in an offense that is set to regress from a volume perspective.
20. Josh Allen pass attempts
Line: 33.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 38.7 attempts
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-117)
Date: September 23, 9:03am ET
Notes: Our projection is well above this line, and the game environment is explosive given the matchup with Miami.
21. Patrick Mahomes rushing yards
Line: 7.5 yards
Mean Projection: 15.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: September 23, 9:17am ET
Notes: Mahomes went 13-4 against this line last year despite the 0-2 start this season. This line may be too reactive.
22. Dameon Pierce carries
Line: 14.5 carries
Mean Projection: 18.0 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+100)
Date: September 23, 9:23am ET
Notes: Our projections have Rex Burkhead involved more than he was last week, but this wager still shows a big edge due to the projected game environment.
23. Isiah Pacheco rush yards
Line: 17.5 yards
Mean Projection: 11.2 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: September 23, 4:55pm ET
Notes: Pacheco was involved in Week 1 in a blowout and only got touches in Week 2 when Clyde Edwards-Helaire got his ankle stepped on.
24. Marquise Goodwin receiving yards
Line: 19.5 yards
Mean Projection: 17.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: September 23, 5:30pm ET
Notes: Goodwin is the clear WR3 behind Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf while playing in a low-volume offense. He’s seen just three targets through two games.
25. Juwan Johnson receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.8 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+150)
Date: September 23, 6:58pm ET
Notes: Johnson’s route participation has been pretty elite for a tight end through the first two weeks and he’s earned 12 targets through two games. While we don’t love betting tight end overs, the +150 on this bet was too good to pass up.
26. Jameis Winston completions
Line: 17.5 completions
Mean Projection: 20.8 completions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-130)
Date: September 23, 7:09pm ET
Notes: Winston has posted 23 and 25 completions in the first two weeks. This number seems too low for the Saints’ expected pass rate in Week 3 against an average Carolina defense.
27. Jared Goff pass yards
Line: 242.5 yards
Mean Projection: 271.1 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: September 23, 8:21pm ET
Notes: We’re expecting a lot of pass attempts from Goff in this one as the Lions enter Minnesota as 6-point road dogs. The Vikings secondary is beatable and now without stud safety Harrison Smith.
28. Darrell Henderson carries
Line: 10.5 carries
Mean Projection: 9.5 carries
Book: Caesar’s (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-109)
Date: September 23, 10:39pm ET
Notes: As seen in Week 2, the Rams appear to prefer Cam Akers on early downs and Darrell Henderson on passing downs.
29. Dante Pettis receiving yards
Line: 16.5 yards
Mean Projection: 13.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 23, 10:44pm ET
Notes: Pettis is a part-time player in a Justin Fields pass game. We can’t even believe the books hung a line on this dude.
30. Cordarrelle Patterson carries
Line: 11.5 carries
Mean Projection: 10.6 carries
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-102)
Date: September 23, 10:59pm ET
Notes: CPatt’s carry numbers were inflated Week 1 because Damien Williams got hurt and Tyler Allgeier was inactive. Allgeier was active Week 2 and handled half the RB carries.
31. Dameon Pierce receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.2 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-135)
Date: September 24, 4:04pm ET
Notes: Pierce got the bulk of the rushing workload in Week 2 but still cedes passing snaps to Rex Burkhead.
32. Jeffery Wilson rushing + receiving yards
Line: 74.5 yards
Mean Projection: 69.0 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 24, 7:22pm ET
Notes: Wilson should lead San Fran’s committee for now, but we believe Deebo Samuel, Jordan Mason, and Marlon Mack will still take plenty of work in the aggregate.
33. Saquon Barkley rushing yards
Line: 81.5 yards
Mean Projection: 78.6 yards
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 25, 9:13am ET
Notes: Primetime games typically offer value on star player unders, and we get another instance of that here with Saquon.
34. Breshad Perriman receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.1 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+110)
Date: September 25, 3:25pm ET
Notes: Tampa Bay is depleted at WR, but they could lean on the ground game today and Perriman has never been a high-volume guy.
35. Michael Gallup receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.0 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+105)
Date: September 26, 12:34am ET
Notes: This will be Gallup’s first game since tearing his ACL last season. We are expecting him to be on some kind of pitch count, and Cooper Rush is the QB.
