Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected on our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 99-79, +$920
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Carson Wentz passing yards
Line: 227.5 yards
Mean Projection: 213 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 11, 9:31am ET
Notes: We’re expecting both offenses to struggle on Thursday Night Football with the total set at 38.0. Wentz has struggled with consistency again this season and Washington might be eager to take the ball out of his hands more with Brian Robinson back and healthy, giving them three solid running backs to utilize.
2. Kirk Cousins passing yards
Line: 269.5 yards
Mean Projection: 259.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 13, 1:35pm ET
Notes: Cousins has only one game above 277 yards and none over 300. We are projecting a decent gap under.
3. Matthew Stafford passing yards
Line: 267.5 yards
Mean Projection: 256.7 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: October 13, 1:47pm ET
Notes: Stafford is 1-4 against this line on the year. His health and the quality of the Rams offensive line have limited Stafford’s weekly upside.
4. Allen Robinson receiving yards
Line: 36.5 yards
Mean Projection: 31.6
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 13, 2:22pm ET
Notes: Robinson isn’t separating, and hasn’t seen many targets. He has beaten this number just once on the year.
5. Cam Akers rush attempts
Line: 11.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 16 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 13, 2:31pm ET
Notes: Akers has functioned as the lead in the Rams’ committee, and have a juicy matchup with Carolina that should lead to extended volume.
6. Dyami Brown receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.3 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+100)
Date: October 13, 3:35pm ET
Notes: Brown posted a monster 2-105-2 line against Tennessee despite running a route on only 34% of Carson Wentz dropbacks. His career 18.0 yard aDOT (28.3 this season) lends his catch rate to be a lot lower than league average.
7. Saquon Barkley rush attempts
Line: 19.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 17.3 attempts
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: October 13, 5:05pm ET
Notes: The Giants continue to be run-heavy down several receivers, but this is still a high line for any running back.
8. Jaylen Waddle receiving yards
Line: 58.5 yards
Mean Projection: 50.5 yards
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: October 13, 5:36pm ET
Notes: Rookie Skylar Thompson has been announced as the starting quarterback for Miami this weekend. This line felt like it was set for Tua or Bridgewater starting at QB.
9. Mike Gesicki receiving yards
Line: 21.5 yards
Mean Projection: 16.9 yards
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: October 13, 5:59pm ET
Notes: Gesicki is not a focal point in this Miami passing attack and will be playing with rookie QB Skylar Thompson.
10. Jacoby Brissett pass yards
Line: 213.5 yards
Mean Projection: 192.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 13, 6:31pm ET
Notes: The Browns have been running an unsustainable amount of offensive players, averaging 69.2 through five games. We’re projecting well under that mark this week and therefore come in well under on Brissett’s passing yardage prop.
11. Matt Ryan passing yards
Line: 249.5 yards
Mean Projection: 228.3 yards yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 13, 6:56pm ET
Notes: This Colts offense has been terribly ineffective to start the year. Ryan barely beat this number in OT last week.
12. Gabriel Davis receiving yards
Line: 51.5 yards
Mean Projection: 68.4 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: October 13, 10:38pm ET
Notes: Gabe had a monster outing last week off a full week of practice, and was not listed on the injury report at all for Week 6.
13. Devin Singletary receiving yards
Line: 17.5 yards
Mean Projection: 28.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 13, 10:50pm ET
Notes: This is an outstanding game environment, and Singletary has been active as a receiver in competitive spots.
14. K.J. Osborn receiving yards
Line: 34.5 yards
Mean Projection: 29.2 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 14, 8:22am ET
Notes: There are no injuries of note for Minnesota and Osborn is 2-3 against this number.
15. Mecole Hardman receiving yards
Line: 29.5 yards
Mean Projection: 27.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: October 14, 8:34am ET
Notes: Hardman has seen his route participation decrease the last two weeks, while Skyy Moore has been involved more often.
16. Jauan Jennings receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.3 receptions
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+125)
Date: October 14, 8:52am ET
Notes: Jennings was limited in practice last week, but was full for all of Week 6.
17. Joe Mixon rushing yards
Line: 55.5 yards
Mean Projection: 74.2 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: October 14, 9:13am ET
Notes: Mixon’s usage has been phenomenal despite low efficiency. He is 4-1 against this line on the year.
18. Saquon Barkley receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 4.5 receptions
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-104)
Date: October 14, 9:17am ET
Notes: With a relative lack of WR production, Barkley has become a key cog of the passing game. Baltimore is a plus matchup for RB receiving as well.
19. Mark Andrews receiving yards
Line: 66.5 yards
Mean Projection: 87.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 14, 9:24am ET
Notes: It seems unlikely that Rashod Bateman will play, and Andrews saw 10 targets last week in his absence.
20. Mecole Hardman receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.3 receptions
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-160)
Date: October 14, 11:42am ET
Notes: Similar idea as with the receiving yards bet. The volume gap is much wider, and is +EV even when accounting for juice.
21. Robert Tonyan receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.3 receptions
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: October 14, 1:51pm ET
Notes: Christian Watson did not practice Friday, making it unlikely he will play Sunday and give a slight boost to Tonyan’s target share.
22. Tyler Lockett receptions
Line: 5.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 6.1 receptions
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+125)
Date: October 14, 5:07pm ET
Notes: Lockett continues to earn a solid 25% target share from Geno Smith and gets a great matchup against the Cardinals. The price was too good for us to pass up.
23. Jimmy Garoppolo completions
Line: 18.5 completions
Mean Projection: 21.5 completions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-122)
Date: October 14, 8:39pm ET
Notes: Rest of the market is at 19.5 juiced over on Garoppolo completions.
24. Tre’Quan Smith receiving yards
Line: 25.5 yards
Mean Projection: 34.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 15, 12:36pm ET
Notes: Smith will man the slot with Jarvis Landry out, and Chris Olave’s Q tag leaves even more room for upside.
25. Lamar Jackson pass attempts
Line: 27.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 30.7 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+100)
Date: October 15, 6:39pm ET
Notes: Lamar has cleared this mark in all five games and we’re getting it at even money.
26. Chase Edmonds rushing yards
Line: 24.5 yards
Mean Projection: 18.9 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 16, 11:49am ET
Notes: Raheem Mostert continues to garner a larger share of the Dolphins’ backfield.
27. DeVante Parker receiving yards
Line: 29.5 yards
Mean Projection: 22.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 16, 12:07pm ET
Notes: Parker has Tyquan Thornton nipping at his heels, and Jakobi Meyers is a target hog regardless of whether Parker maintains his slim playing time advantage over the rookie.
28. K.J. Hamler receiving yards
Line: 24.5 yards
Mean Projection: 23.1 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 17, 8:39am ET
Notes: Hamler is a wide mean/median receiver who has seen a minimal receiving role thus far. Russell Wilson is also dealing with a shoulder injury.
